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Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Bonnie Bear who wrote (24407)	8/16/1998 12:25:00 AM
From: Investor-ex!	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 94695

Bonnie, It may be that many companies are holding on until the last minute, hoping things quickly turn around. Many of these smaller publicly traded companies must have at least some retained earnings they can feed off of, short term, plus generous credit lines from their magnanimous bankers. Labor IS tight, for now, and the smaller companies must be loathe to do lay-offs just to have to turn around and attempt rehires should the situation suddenly improve. Also, there is a lag factor in reality and government statistics, perhaps as much as two or even three quarters. I would expect that if trends continue at present rates, we will be seeing substantial changes in employment figures by Q1/Q2 '99. I live in Minneapolis. There is a very large, privately held, multi-national corporation headquartered here named Cargill. Many people have never heard of them, even thought they have annual sales in excess of $50 billion. They are something of a conglomerate, but their core businesses include grain trading and shipping, value-added food processing, and a very successful financial arm. It would be difficult to sit down to a meal prepared in ANY part of the world in which Cargill has not had some involvement. Well, their annual earnings were reported this week as being down 43% year-over-year. Now, keep in mind, Cargill is PRIVATELY held. Unlike many publicly traded companies, they have little to gain by either under-reporting or over-reporting the reality of their bottom line. It is my assertion that, when this company is doing well, the general economic climate is OK, as Cargill is something of an unbiased barometer of global commerce. When this company is not doing well, I can only conclude that the opposite may well be true. I don't think we're in a correction. :o(

To: Bonnie Bear who wrote (24407)	8/16/1998 8:42:00 AM
From: Monty Lenard	Respond to of 94695

Is this the way it's done in the Clinton South? Hi Bonnie, I can assure you that just because Clinton is from the South does not mean that the majority (or even close) in the South shares his views. I have to say that there are other areas of the country that closer resembles what Clinton represents than the South. I know (or hope) that you didn't mean it that way but I couldn't let that one pass without a rebuttal. :-) Monty

To: Bonnie Bear who wrote (24407)	8/16/1998 11:19:00 AM
From: James F. Hopkins	Respond to of 94695

Bonnie; Tracking the R2000 is not as straight forward as tracking the S&P, the R2000 keeps losing it's best runners to the Mid cap index, or they get bought out. With out a lot of foot work one can not assume that the R2000 indicates much of anything. How many graduated, and or were bought by bigger companies, often at a premium? Does that not in turn leave the dogs in it. I think if any thing the R2000 is bound to decline after a wild and speculative IPO period. It's built into the nature of the index. While we can compare an apple to an orange, we need to remember there are differences, and they grow in different climates. Also thanx to S&P500 index funds we have a MO MO market more than a value based one. Jim