To: Dennis who wrote (16053 ) 8/16/1998 11:35:00 PM From: The Phoenix Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 77400
Dennis, What were the responses on Dell? I'd be interested to hear what the bulls over there have to say about what appears today to be a distribution company. Are they overbought...just a momentem play? As for Cisco in 5 years. I'll rehash a bit here, but you may want to go back to posts from Eric and djane and review some of the history regarding "convergence". In a nut-shell most luminaries believe there are only a few telecom/datacom vendors that can effectively capatilize on convergence (data and voice networks collapsing). Vendors most often mentioned are LU, CSCO, ERICY, NT, and ALA. ASND is another company that will benefit however there is uncertainty right now about whether they will go it alone or sell to LU or perhaps ERICY. From a technology perspective the race is on to deliver multimedia (data/voice/video) to the home and small business. Two technologies are seen as competeing for this space - xDSL and Cable. Cisco has been doing very well in both camps annoucing deals with USWest, TWC, and another cable company (recently) I can't recall. ALso Sprint is working to deliver a similar service using Cisco equipment but since they don't own any local exchanges they have a significant challenge. There are many more carrier and enterprise businesses standardizing on Cisco...go to the cisco web site (www.cisco.com) to get a full list. The point is, Cisco is leading the charge for convergence and owns the underlying technology to deliver it. The market for this convergence is in the 10's - even 100's of Billions as measured by most analysts. So, there will be room for all the players to do very well. The networking market is a definite boom...and the arms dealers (the networkerers will benefit the most and generate the most consistent results). One other very important factor to look at will be, once every home (or many homes) have 1.5M service (or more) and begin using it how will the backbones deliver service. They will need to continue to upgrade the core infrastructures as well...and in some cases (in other countries) build core infrastructures from the ground up. Remember, the internet is just a baby... Cisco is well positioned in the core as well with both terrabit routing products and ATM edge switches. So, Cisco is without a doubt the best positioned datacom company out there. They have products for the home, small business, enterprise, carrier located equipment, carrier edge equipment, carrier core equipment, services delivery, management, billing.. Cisco is the total package. Now, predictions... I can not predict a stock price for Cisco 5 years from no more easily than anyone else. If I knew how the overall market was going to behave I'd have a better shot at it. I can predict with confidence that Cisco will beat the S&P, the DOW, and NASDAQ. Most analysts rate Cisco a strong buy...and foundation stock for you portfolio. It's a buy and a core holding. Hope this helps, Gary