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Strategies & Market Trends : A.I.M Users Group Bulletin Board -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: OldAIMGuy who wrote (5375)	8/18/1998 12:08:00 PM
From: Bruce A. Bowman	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 18928

Hi Tom- The last time you said "short term" we had about 3 months worth of rally... I'll take it! :-) Bruce

To: OldAIMGuy who wrote (5375)	8/18/1998 3:46:00 PM
From: JZGalt	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 18928

Tom, That chart is made up of from a variation on the McClellan oscillator which is in turn a function of the advances and declines in the market. It has been fairly good to me in looking at turning points. Normally I look for a double dip sort of bottom in this indicator like we had in June for a Major rally to start. Obviously that did not happen in June and I'm still scratching my head about that. If you go back thru the historical charts on the site you will see that these tiny double bottom oscillations come when the market is washed out, tries to rally and the rally is sold into, but then finally rallies because the selling is exhausted. FWIW, these typically lead to an up cycle with the duration about as long as the downcycle was. So if we declare today the "bottom", then the rally should continue for at least 2 weeks and possibly a bit more on the "washed out" scenerio. I'm not going to predict that we are all done here, but this chart turning up, a little bit better breadth, continued money flows into the market from mutual funds (as tracked by TrimTabs) and the bouncing off the 200 day moving average of the S&P500 would all lead me to believe we can at least go up to the 50 day moving average around 1125 before anything serious happens. All of this doesn't do me a darn bit of good however in predicting how my individual set of stocks will react. It is just nicer looking at a screen with positive numbers on it for a change. This may be nothing more than a rally in a bull market correction, but I'll take what I can get at this point. ---- Dave