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Strategies & Market Trends : The Stock Market Bubble -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Les H who wrote (1170)	8/19/1998 5:37:00 PM
From: M CAHILL	Read Replies (5) \| Respond to of 3339

I wonder: How much does a cantalope melon cost in Japan now? Heard they use to cost $70.00 each. If Japan breaks support and free falls where bottom is? If Presidential cycle correction is here & now? If Clinton problems creates bear market that rebounds once he resigns like when Nixon was in office. If Year 2000 bug starts Dec. 31 1998 and causes panic? If higher or lower interest rates will hurt stocks? How can the market go to 4000 or 1000 like some suggest? How can the market go to 7000 and then 10,000 before year end? And then 35,000 by 2009, like Harry Dent Jr. suggests? How many times does Dell split before 2009 and do they own IBM buy then? Does MSFT or Intel get broken up?

To: Les H who wrote (1170)	8/19/1998 8:01:00 PM
From: Gwolf	Respond to of 3339

I know that Arch, along with a number of other people that follow cycles, feel that we are at the tail end of a very long bull cycle. I know from my experiences of talking personally with him that he has been looking for this cycle to end no later than the end of 1998. As he explained cycles this big peak in a window of opportunity that can be 1 -2 years in length and that you just have to be on your toes to catch which downturn is the big one. He has always told people where to go short on the market and where to place their stops so that you don't get hurt if the market reverses back to the upside. Arch doesn't recommend individual stocks, his purpose is to tell you what the market is going to do so that you can protect yourself and catch any swings of 5% or greater, both to the upside or the downside. As a investor you still have to do your own homework to identify which stocks and industries to be in and how susceptible to the general market they will be.I have never lost any money following his recommendations on the general market to this point. I have been saved on several occasions by having tight stops on my stocks when he has warned of a drop coming. I place tight stops on my stocks if I think they are vulnerable or I have written calls to protect myself If I really love the stock and don't want to disturb a long term tax situation while at the same time shorting the SPY or buying OEX puts for over all protection. I think if you know how to work with his letter you are usually pretty happy with the results. When the BIG ONE does finally happen I believe I will be right their to make money based on his technical/astrological calls along with my own common sense about what is happening to the financial world around us. I feel that we are about to get a very healthy correction in the September to October time frame, will it be 30% - 50%, I don't know for sure but my stops are very tight on all of long positions, even the ones that I could get a better tax treatment on if I held on to them. I am very close to entering several short positions and some OEX leaps. I don't know if this will be down and dirty like 1987 or slow and smooth like 73-74 but I think investor had better have their eyes open and realize that the Newton's law hasn't been repelled. Gwolf