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Technology Stocks : THQ,Inc. (THQI) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Kelvin Taylor who wrote (7601)	8/19/1998 11:12:00 PM
From: Marc Newman	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 14266

Good points. And I'm glad you realize that I'm not trying to pick on you at all. Here's where I see the difference. Last year THQ was still not a proven company. I think WCW vs the World had made it to number ten on the PSX charts for one month. Pax was a big question mark, etc. The thought was, will THQ make $.75 for the year or not? And Q3 looked like a giant dud, especially when Pax slipped to the fourth quarter. No one thought Q3 would be any good. One of our frequent posters even said on the MF board that he'd buy a copy of Pax for everyone if THQ beat .18 or something like that. Earnings estimates were actually lowered late in the game by analysts. But this Q3 looks good. Right now the estimates are just for .25, but I think we'll soon be expecting .40 once we see the volumes of NWO selling at $39.95, Quest's continued decent sales, and initial shipments for the PC games. Bass Masters alone could ship 100,000+. Retailers are being told this game has very solid sales potential. It's in a hot genre, most likely the most advanced fishing game ever, and at a very attractive price point. Another key difference is in the number of shorts. Last year we had almost none. Now we have over a million shares sold short. It will take very little to get the momentum moving the other way again. Look how quickly we moved past $30 two days after the convertible was announced. Shorts pressed their bets, the stock started to move against them, and bam, up three points. I guess what I'm saying is that it just has to look like it's safe to buy THQ again and we will see a sustained move up. And I think it will happen earlier than October this time, as THQ is more of a proven company and WCW Revenge is more of a known quantity than NWO was at this time last year. Furman Selz reiterated a strong buy today and published an enthusiastic note about THQ's business going forward. If the analysts really are pissed at THQ's guidance, then they should raise estimates by 20% or more and send a message to Farrell. I'd like to see THQ move more to the beating high estimates by a few cents routine than kill low estimates time and time again. That only brings in a too rapid price appreciation and a bunch of daytraders. Btw, we are talking about non-split adjusted prices, right? <<ggg>> Marc