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Strategies & Market Trends : Asia Forum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: yard_man who wrote (5704)	8/20/1998 10:08:00 AM
From: Joseph G.	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 9980

<<that assumes that the debt will be paid, right?>> If debt is not paid, common is worthless, and if it is not worthless - then there is no property law enforcement and it is worthless anyway. The point is - it is not impossible that economic situation will lead to political instability, whereupon all prior property claims, particularly those of foreigners, will be nil and void -- happened very many times before. <<How much did the NYSE lose from the top in '29 to the bottom? >> DIJA lost 89%, but that were some of the largest Cos. in the world.

To: yard_man who wrote (5704)	8/20/1998 11:26:00 AM
From: John Dally	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 9980

Hi tippet, Yes, Asian companies may be on sale for 10 cents on the dollar, however, if they run out of cash and declare themselves bankrupt, you end up with $0. The true beneficiary of these firesale deals may be the US multinationals which buy these companies once they are bankrupt. Current shareholders get $0, US multinational buys the assets at 10 cents on the $. Personally, I'm waiting for the stock markets of the Asian countries to "flatline." (Just like the cardiograph of a heart-attack victim.) I.e., I expect the economic recession / depression to last long enough (2-3 years) that traders lose interest and the stock markets go flat with low volume. I think that is the low-risk time to invest. The last time I saw this was with US small-cap technology stocks in the summer of 1994. Many of the stocks I followed would trade only a few thousand shares a day. Occasionally, stocks with market caps of >$100 million would not trade during an entire day's session! That was the time to buy! Best regards, John.