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Technology Stocks : Apple Inc. -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Andrew Danielson who wrote (16979)	8/20/1998 11:26:00 AM
From: Alomex	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 213182

If we assume a mere nickel advance per quarter (VERY conservative, I think) over the next five quarters, then we get: Not as conservative as it sounds. At some point in the near future Apple's tax credits will run out, and then a nickel increase in earnings will require a dime or two of actual gains.

To: Andrew Danielson who wrote (16979)	8/20/1998 11:33:00 AM
From: Sam Scrutchins	Respond to of 213182

Using Zacks, I compared forward-looking (fiscal year 1999) PE's for four major computer makers, including AAPL Nice analysis, Andrew. I had not realized that Apple was valued as highly as it apparently is. I also agree that analysts are undervaluing Apple, so I think there are good opportunities for earnings surprises in the future. We should all get a bit worried when the analysts start valuing Apple as we do. That will probably mean the run is nearing an end. Sam

To: Andrew Danielson who wrote (16979)	8/21/1998 12:46:00 AM
From: Marc Newman	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 213182

Andrew, good post on the PEs. Yes, our edge is that Apple's profits will likely be significantly higher than estimates. Everyone should remember that Volkswagen's entire line got a boost from the Beetle hype. There are so many people on the sidelines who were afraid to buy a(nother) Mac until this week. The profitable quarters weren't enough to stop the fear, but the rousing success of the iMac convinces them that Apple is here to stay. And I don't think Apple needs another iMac type hit in 1999. Just cool, fast machines. Lots of room to grow on the high end and the low-end portables. And we may see the nMac yet. Linda, excellent post to Annette. Jon, you're right about options. A conspiracy of interests, but not a conspiracy. Alomex, good point about the tax credits. Think it was a Motley Fool piece that first pointed that out. WebDrone, the iMac modems are certainly the Apple modems manufactured by Global Village until March, but now made by Boca. Travis, its possible lots of PBs made it out through July, only to disappear into the maw of all the preorders and thus never show up as available for sale on the shelves. And then the Cork'ers went on vacation. We'll see if Apple can catch up this quarter. Lots of weeks left. Rich, it's hard to say how far Apple's production capacity has been cut. They used to be able to make over a million units a quarter, but I don't know if that was with any overtime and such like we're seeing with the Sacto plant. Apple did sell the plant in, where was it, Colorado Springs? The 8000 a day could be high, but 6000 a day and 50,000 on hand takes us to 320,000 by the end of the quarter. Domestically. Of course it is difficult to say what AIO sales will be. This is a stronger quarter for education sales than last one, but the iMac should cut into AIO sales, as you've said. Same with G3s. If Apple sells out of its entire non-refresh G3 inventory, which is what is happening, does that put G3 sales over the top considering limited availability of the refreshed systems? Andrew's estimate on PBs seems reasonable--PB sales should be well over last quarter's, even with the delays. IDC calls PB sales a home run for Apple: maccentral.com Marc