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Technology Stocks : Apple Inc. -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Alomex who wrote (17040)	8/21/1998 8:18:00 AM
From: Phillip C. Lee	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 213182

<<I'd say there is no way AIO sales will remain constant. The iMac will bite into the AIO big time. On the other hand I'd put a bit more of a mild increase on PB sales. I don't think Apple will post revenues above $1,600mill, and I'd put my money in $1450-1550mill as the likely range...>> Based on your justification, let's calculate as follows: Assumption I: The iMac will bite into AIO big time(your assumption). This will lead to revenue decrease from 168m to where? Let's assume to zero. The iMac sales will generate 400+m revenue. We can easily get additional 232+m revenue just from this difference. Hence, from last quarter's 1402m revenue, we could easily come up with $1634+m. Besides, you said Apple will get a bit more on PB sales. Phil

To: Alomex who wrote (17040)	8/21/1998 10:07:00 AM
From: Andrew Danielson	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 213182

<<I'd say there is no way AIO sales will remain constant. The iMac will bite into the AIO big time. On the other hand I'd put a bit more of a mild increase on PB sales. I don't think Apple will post revenues above $1,600mill, and I'd put my money in $1450-1550mill as the likely range...>> Let's quantify! How much will AIO sales be hurt by iMac? Unit sales were 120,000 last quarter. This quarter we have the iMac but we also have more intense demand from the education sector. In the previous quarter, the purchasers of those 120,000 units must surely have known about the iMac--including the August, pre-school release date--and summarily decided to go for the AIO anyway. AAPL has tried their best to differentiate the two products enough to prevent significant canabalization. First, you can get AIO at a faster processor speed than the iMac (266, and did the 300 ever come out?). Second, of course, it has a floppy drive. Third, it has expansion capabilities (3 PCI slots, more memory expansion, SCSI). The SCSI element is important for schools not wanting to throw away all their old peripherals (the same could be said about ADB). Schools are backward-looking. They save as much money as they can on a tight budget, and they only make major technology switches when they are absolutely forced to do so. I don't see school districts jumping on the new-technology bandwagon quite as fast as you suggest. Finally, reports about certain elements of flimsiness in iMac construction (CD-ROM drive especially) might scare away schools thinking about their frenzied 8-year-old kids manhandling the machines. If AIO sales were ripped in half because of the iMac, I think Apple would be as surprised as I would be. They continue to assert that the AIO is a "different" product and will not be discontinued because of the iMac. So, will we have 100,000? 80,000? 50,000? A drop to 50,000 would make sense based on your revenue estimate, as it would take the $1,640 figure down to $1,542. However, that doesn't take into account your idea that Powerbook sales will be higher than my 120,000 projected. Therefore, you must either think that 50,000 (a 58% drop quarter-to-quarter) is too many AIO units to ship or there is some other factor you disagree with. Do you strongly disagree with the reports suggesting 400,000 iMacs? If so, what is your projection and why? I'm not trying to interrogate, I just think there is higher utility to quantifying specific expectations. Andrew

To: Alomex who wrote (17040)	9/14/1998 4:43:00 PM
From: Alomex	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 213182

A month ago I wrote: I'd say there is no way AIO sales will remain constant. The iMac will bite into the AIO big time. A couple of bulls jumped on me big time for this statement... Today macosrumors reports that seemingly Apple is dropping the AIO and replacing it with an iMac for education...

To: Alomex who wrote (17040)	9/14/1998 4:46:00 PM
From: Alomex	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 213182

Apple closed down 1.16% on a day the Nasdaq index moved up 1.47%. The drop looked to me like the wall street boyz selling on some forthcoming not so good news. Any ideas what could that be? Intel slashing prices perhaps? Any other guesses?

To: Alomex who wrote (17040)	9/14/1998 4:56:00 PM
From: Alomex	Respond to of 213182

Re: the death of Byte, from it's web site Message to subscribers: The next issue of Byte Magazine is July '98 and it will be mailed to you the week of June 1st - 6th. After that, the magazine will suspend publishing through the summer and have an exciting relaunch in the Fall. The relaunch does not affect the number of issues due you. As a loyal subscriber to Byte, you will receive all issues that you paid for.