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Strategies & Market Trends : Asia Forum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Joseph Beltran who wrote (5747)	8/21/1998 2:22:00 PM
From: Robert Douglas	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 9980

Joseph, you wrote: I think Greenspan has to concede now that the threat of a recession is much larger than the threat of inflation. I doubt seriously that Mr. Greenspan is conceding that at all - especially in light of two economic releases this week showing housing starts at a 10-year high and the 4-week average of jobless claims as low as it has been in a year. We are in a deflationary spiral here and the only cure that I'm aware of is to print and print more money. I see little evidence of deflation here (United States) let alone a "deflationary spiral" What evidence do you see of such a spiral? I do however see mounting evidence of brewing inflation in such things as wages, housing and health care. Have you seen that HMOs are getting their first price increases in years from employers, some of which are in the 5% to 10% range? The IMF should immediately relax the deficit constraints in s.k. and get money into circulation. even more important for japan to do so. Here I agree. It's time for Keynesian stimulus in Asia. It isn't however in Mr. Greenspan's job description to provide liquidity for foreign nations. I think if the choice presents itself between inflationary pressures at home and a crisis in Asia, Greenspan will hold the tough line and fight inflation at home. I know that IS in his job description. -Robert

To: Joseph Beltran who wrote (5747)	8/21/1998 2:24:00 PM
From: Mike McFarland	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 9980

We are in a deflationary spiral here and the only cure that I'm aware of is to print and print more money. That goes for the u.s. as well as all of asia. I was not aware that money was tight here in the US--has lending in the US become too restrictive? Are corporations having trouble getting access to funds? Not at all. And neither is money tight for the consumer, or at least you would not know money was tight from the deals that are available on mortgage and auto loans. Although I suppose personal credit card interest rates are quite high, but with many Americans tapped out on their cards you probably wouldn't want to stimulate borrowing in that area by getting those rates down (certainly, the banks have not exactly been rushing to lower their card rates, even as the long bond rate sinks to 5.4% today). No, I think there is quite enough money sloshing about here in the US. Let the Asians buy their own products for a change, we have sopped up enough of their cheap exports through now. As far as Asia, doesn't look like the Japanese consumer will be able to buy Asia out of it's depression either. This is quite a fix...looking forward to the next issues of the Economist. (except I'm such a cheap bastard I share a subscription, and they're always a week or two old when I get them).

To: Joseph Beltran who wrote (5747)	8/21/1998 2:45:00 PM
From: Joseph G.	Respond to of 9980

<< I think Greenspan has to concede now that the threat of a recession is much larger than the threat of inflation. We are in a deflationary spiral here and the only cure that I'm aware of is to print and print more money. That goes for the u.s. as well as all of asia. The IMF should immediately relax the deficit constraints in s.k. and get money into circulation. even more important for japan to do so. >> Why stop there? I think US treasury just should issue a guaranty of 36% per year to all stock holders who risk their health by sitting all day on sofas and dreaming of retirement at 39. They risk their hard earned $10k to get rich fast - should not the Government do something to reward them? Why not? Why work if The Govenrment can just print money and give it to deserving citizens?