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Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: bobby beara who wrote (24848)	8/22/1998 11:09:00 AM
From: Bull RidaH	Read Replies (7) \| Respond to of 94695

Bobby, Looks to me like from the early '96 peak on the CRB, we began an ABC correction. Looks like the 5 waves of A completed in 2/97. Then we saw an expanded flat B wave, with a of B ending in 5/97, b of B ending in 7/97, then c of B ending in 10/97. From 10/97, the 5 waves described in my earlier post probably show the end of C coming in at this time. A & C match up very well time wise. Looks like we're in a bottoming area now for the CRB. As for the S&P, I have to stick with the read that had the 1st wave down of A off the 7/20 peak finishing last Sunday night. Wave 2 (corrective/up) began from there, and we saw A of 2 complete Wednesday. This selloff into the end of the week was B of 2, and at Friday's lows, we concluded B of 2 and began C of 2. If it matches A of 2 timewise, it would conclude Tuesday morning. Otherwise, it could extend out into the week a bit. This "V bottom" we made yesterday is an ominous sign of things to come, as V bottoms have a high degree of probability for coming in just before huge collapses... Case in point-October '97, just before the crash (easily seen on the daily charts). I don't think I've ever seen a V bottom that wasn't followed by a crash like move lower. You'll hear alot of people talking about the "hammer" made on the Daily charts Friday. But there's a big problem with that analysis... Hammers don't come afer a 450 pt. Dow upswing. Coming after an upswing, the bar is known as a "Hanging Man", with bearish implications. I believe wave 3 of A will begin this week, and will drive the market through the 1055 support once and for all. Wave 1 of A lasted 4 weeks, and shaved 150pts. off the S&P futures. Wave 3 of A will certainly exceed that performance. Regards, David P.S. Favors went 50% short yesterday with ALL his clients (short & long term, with a stop at 8610 the Dow. He'll committ the other 50% on a break of 8316, or at a good termination point for this rally begun Friday morning)

To: bobby beara who wrote (24848)	8/22/1998 1:14:00 PM
From: Bull RidaH	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 94695

Bobby, RE: Wave 4 possibility on the SPX: Yes, it is a possibility that we're still in wave 4 of 1 of A, and haven't even begun wave 5 yet. From Aug. 4th, wave 4 would be labeled as a 3-3-5, with the first two 3's (or ABC's) just having completed on Friday's low. That would put us in the 5 wave C move higher now. What's great about this possibility, is that under either read, we should be looking for the completion of a sizeable 5 wave move off Friday's lows, followed by a dramatic collapse in the markets. The scenario you raise of wave 5 of 1 of A not having started yet may be more logical, as we just haven't covered enough ground to the downside yet relative to '29 & '66's completion of 1 of A. No matter what, an amazing short opportunity, the Big Kahuna, now lurks just around the corner. Nailing the top of this C wave will be quite a challenge. 1135SPX/8850Dow looks to be the max to me, with a completion within 2 days to 2 weeks. What are your indicators telling you for time and price? Regards, David