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Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Bull RidaH who wrote (24888)	8/22/1998 11:40:00 AM
From: Vitas	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 94695

Hi David, As you are probably aware, every bear and their grandmother is counting the 55 calendar days from the July 17th peak and looking for the big crash, or a crash, or whatever. Although this possibility should not be dismissed, and we should tread lightly during this time frame, I can't see any instance in the past where the second shoulder peak topped when the summation was already bear market oversold, at -2000. Usually the summation is at least zero and more like a 1000 or more. Please see if you can spot any instances. The thought occurs to me that Favors, a widely publicized and frequent CNBC commentator, may turn out to be the Granville of the early 80's. Favors' stops have been "fished" and reversed quite a number of times since April. Vitas

To: Bull RidaH who wrote (24888)	8/22/1998 3:54:00 PM
From: flickerful	Respond to of 94695

Favors went 50% short yesterday with ALL his clients (short & long term, with a stop at 8610 the Dow. He'll committ the other 50% on a break of 8316, or at a good termination point for this rally begun Friday morning) interesting in light of his remarks at close of trading to insana, who asked him exactly <<are you short now? >> the above is not quite the answer he gave, as many would confirm.

To: Bull RidaH who wrote (24888)	8/22/1998 4:30:00 PM
From: stan s.	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 94695

David, with all due respect, you can't use a hammer or hanging man to predict a continuance or reversal of a 450 point move. They might signal a move...which eventually could result in the end or beginning of a bull run.....but their value rests in the predictive quality of stock movements of a shorter duration. I think X made it clear in her comments that she she was using the formations as a tool for defining what Monday might bring....not a longer term scenario. By the way, whether one views Friday's Candlestick as a hanging man or a hammer, both are a stretch...the open and close on the DOW anyway....was a bit wide in relation to the shadow. The safer read would simply be a bullish long lower shadow. Excuse the intrusion. Stan

To: Bull RidaH who wrote (24888)	8/22/1998 8:42:00 PM
From: ViperChick Secret Agent 006.9	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 94695

<<< P.S. Favors went 50% short yesterday with ALL his clients (short & long term, with a stop at 8610 the Dow. He'll committ the other 50% on a break of 8316, or at a good termination point for this rally begun Friday morning)>>> Please advise where you got this information as it is conflicting with other information out there

To: Bull RidaH who wrote (24888)	8/22/1998 9:47:00 PM
From: epicure	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 94695

You'll hear alot of people talking about the "hammer" made on the Daily charts Friday. 207.95.154.130 Check the chart. Evening star formation as of 3 days ago (weds the top star was formed) down thurs- then a hammer. The hammer will need confirmation but it most certainly is a hammer as it is occuring in a downtrend, short though that downtrend may be.

To: Bull RidaH who wrote (24888)	8/23/1998 2:22:00 AM
From: Moominoid	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 94695

OT Could you Elliott Wavers please let me know what you think about DELL? Would you go long or short now?

To: Bull RidaH who wrote (24888)	8/23/1998 10:14:00 AM
From: donald sew	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 94695

David, Here's my latest update on TSO, which is looking at about the same time frame you are. >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> INDEX UPDATE ---------------------- Extensively rechecked my technicals and I have notice the probability is actually high that the following next 2 days could be up, but up only slightly on a intraday basis. Around the 2nd to third day it begins to fall again. Whether it will drop hard after the 3rd day is another question and not part of this specific analysis. What I was searching for, was to see what is the normal pattern after a day where there was a strong intraday rebound took place. In my research I did not look for price movement in the normal charts, but I looked for similar patterns in the movement of my technicals - such researched pointed me to DEC 19 and MAY 27. Please keep in mind that my reseach parameters were set for a 1-5 day period, since I realise that about 2 weeks afer May 27 the market took off to the upside. This specific analysis is very confined to only a 5 day period and should not be use as a indication of what may happen to happen after 5 days. On both DEC 19 and MAY 27, there was a strong intraday rebound and within the next 2 days the market was slight up on a intraday basis, then the dipping process resumed. If one believes that there will be a strong pullback, then this analysis is implying we the next 2 days may be the short-term interim top. This analysis is not saying that we cannot move higher before a bigger drop. All my technicals are indicating if there is to be another strong drop, without an immediate rebound, such should occur within the next 2 weeks, latest SEPT 4. I think it would be safe to open a 50% position tomorrow or TUE. Here is my timeframe analysis: 1) market to be flat to slightly up over the next 2-3 days(AUG 24-26) 2) market to start to head down again by WED/THUR (AUG 26-27), with a possibility that a strong spike down could occur THUR or FRI. 3a) if there is a strong spike down this THU/FRI then early the following week there will be a small upswing or flatness, and then around SEPT 3(THU), acceleration to the downside could begin. 3b) if there is no strong down spike this THU/FRI, we will have a short period of slight down or flatness leading into SEPT 3 with acceleration to the downside to begin. The key is whether we break the 8317 support convincingly on a intraday basis, say 50 points (around 8267). I think this is basicly how Jerry Favors is getting his 8263 figure). If we break this support by THUR, it looks very likely that we will break the 8000 support by the 2nd week of SEPT, and all bets are off. If we do not break the 8300 range support by the second week of SEPT then there is still a chance, although slim, that the 8300 support area could hold. SIMPLY PUT - IT DOES NOT LOOK GOOD. >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>. Also we have 8600 range as the high of the STAIR-STEP. This also falls in line that the HAMMER that people are noticing is actually a HANGING MAN = BEARISH SEEYA