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Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Monty Lenard who wrote (24911)	8/22/1998 3:47:00 PM
From: Karl Lewin	Respond to of 94695

re: Slopes I guess I am interpreting your slope properly. Maybe not. The %'s do not necessarily tell of the steepness (rate of change?) of the underlying 200ma's. They just represent the percentage number of stocks with positive or negative sloping 200ma's. The idea was if 60% of stocks were below 200ma but 80% had positive sloping 200ma's does that tell a different story than if 80% had negative sloping 200ma's? I don't know but maybe with enough history some sort of pattern might emerge. :)

To: Monty Lenard who wrote (24911)	8/22/1998 4:26:00 PM
From: Gersh Avery	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 94695

Monty .. re slopes The 200 day that I'm keeping track of now shows a positive slope of only 0.567 points per day. This is down from the 0.8 that I posted a few days ago. Note .. I am currently averaging 200 calender days and not market days. One problem that is currently assaulting this slope is that the starting point is ~2/3/98. The reason that this is a problem is the rate of climb the market was doing at that time. For the 200 day to stay just the same (0.56) the 20 day would have to match the 20 day from that period. The 20day from that period was about 3 S&P points per day .. for two months . So then, if Mr. Market can manage to average a positive 3 S&P points per day for the next two months we will have the same 200 day slope that we have today. Projecting out for the slopes now show the 200 day crossing over to negative ~9/14. Monday and Tuesday of this week only shifted this ETA from 9/4 to 9/14 .. we are close. The simple moving averages that I have for 200day, 50day, and 20day are 1098.65, 1128.04, and 1087.22. Please note that we are currently below them all. Yes .. I know this is a look at an index and not the components of the index/market. I also seem to be crunching the numbers in a different way than others do .. but I figured I started this thing sooo.... And you do seem interested in the slope of things. Gersh