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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Skeeter Bug who wrote (23219)	8/23/1998 4:03:00 PM
From: Paul V.	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 70976

To: Skeeter Bug From: Paul V. Sunday, Aug 23 1998 3:53PM EST -Preview- Skeeter, >paul, do you believe amat has tremendous uncertainty already priced into its stock? just curious.< No one can accurately project the market with the exception that the market goes up and the market goes down. Tom Dorsey and other pundits have alot more research data than I and therefore have the data to make a more accurate assessment. Yes, I am hedging<G> Tom Dorsey TA chart dated 8/21 has a bottom for the NASD of 1660 and we are now at 1797.60, a low DOW of approx.7250 and we are at now 8533.65. Twenty-five of the 41 Tom Dorsey sectors are 29.9% or less on the Bell Shaped Curve and therefore in the oversold range. And, only one sector is above the 70.6% or the oversold range. Out of the total 41 sectors that DW tracks, 40 of the 41 sectors are 41.4% or less on the Bell Shaped Curve. Check my weekly, Wednesday, DW post on the Bull Percentages. Like Teri, Big Bucks and others on this site AMAT is holding up better than we are anticipating. But, I looking at the TA data I have I still think there is more room for the NYSE, Sectors and individual stocks to go down further. I have positioned myself to go either way, buy if the market goes further south, and or ride out the upturn with the shares I already own. Jacob is looking at $26-28 range, Big Bucks at $17-22, Tom Dorsey is showing his TA chart low of $21 and 63% off the highs of $54 is $20. IMO, in the long run the downside risk of buying AMAT from Jacob's $28 all the way to Big Bucks $17 is minimum compared to the long term gain over the next 12-18 months. From our NAIC Fundamental Analysis of AMAT using Value line data and the latest AMAT released quarterly data we project with a average PE or 26.1, over a 3-5 years, a price of approx. $89. However, this average pe has fluctuated tremendously from 6.5 pe to high around 33 in split adjusted terms. Wall Street actually in absolute terms as take the PE of AMAT to over 50. Statistically, using the AMAT HIGH data since 1990, in absolute terms, I come up with the highest standard deviation highs at approx. $104. IMO, we will see these somewhere from the $89 to $104 range somewhere in the next 18 months. This is why I stated above that, "IMO, in the long run the downside risk of buying AMAT from Jacob's $28 all the way to Big Bucks $17 is minimum compared to the long term gain over the next 12-18 months." Hope this helps. Others, on this site may argue with me. Please pitch in with your analysis and critically critique my analysis, Teri, Big Bucks, John L., Gottfried, Lester E., Tito, and Jacob and others. Just my opinions. Paul V.