To: LTK007 who wrote (8019 ) 8/23/1998 6:22:00 PM From: Sergio H Read Replies (5) | Respond to of 29382
Max, I don't see any reason for the oil market to improve right now. Did you notice that gas prices actually dropped a little last week at the pump ? Oil futures barely moved even after we bombed Afghanistan and the Sudan. Investors looking for safe havens will put their money into utilities, drugs, food companies and stocks that benefit from international cheap labor, such as the retailers. Stocks with high PEs will be avoided. I am keeping a close eye on the Russell 2000 avg. to see if the market begins to find bargains in the small cap arena. The small caps have suffered due to their lack of liquidity as the fear of being the last one holding when the lights go out continues to pervade the individual and instititutional investors. With interest rates remaining low and stable and the economy still chugging along at a decent pace, the US market continues to remain attractive. The high valuations of S& P stocks are appropriate when you balance the strength of the dollar vs other currencies. Historical comparisons of these stocks need to be adjusted to the relative value of the dollar in order to put our current market in a relevant perspective. Unfortunatly, our market does not exist in a vacuum and we need to once again establish our market's leadership to the world. This is a time of risk, but it is also one of opportunity. We'll find out soon enough where the market is going to take us. For my part, I have mostly played small caps offering undiscovered value. I may need to adjust to buying larger caps, perhaps mid caps, depending on the market conditions in the next few weeks. Sergio