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Politics : Idea Of The Day -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Front Beach who wrote (19472)	8/24/1998 9:26:00 AM
From: IQBAL LATIF	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 50167

Welcome to the new member-a ''self proclaimed'' severe bear- and Why I am not one! You will find that this thread is about questions and answers! We have taken inevitably a position which is a rarity in this market -- a long position but we are the only thread which on dips trades on short side with extreme ferocity-- we like to skin the shorts. gggg Anyway you will find that we write a detail report on why we think the market is here and why we think we will go forward. I know the little experience I have markets rarely award those who seem to call or know the direction of the market, the awards belong to those who come to the market with open mind, have a stake in the market most important. Their are no free lunches around here, those who predict a ''five thousand point'' drop with nothing to loose or all cash will neither see the drop nor see rewards when the market runs or drops. The market has left them from July 96 at 5200 now we are 4000 points higher they have lost this battle hundred times and have prayed for a entry on higher highs but what a pain they always see a higher high but no entry point. The market rewards the brave on down or upside if you play it you will see that being long gives you an additional lever to play as in extreme movements atleast a long sells the calls big time and is able to cover them at his price. In a bull market a 1000 point drop is nothing but a blessing in disguise. Low inflation, higher productivity, lower deficits, lower long term yields and high growth with moderate inflation only for me points one direction that is up, fortunately for us and unfortunately for bears this is not pre-requisites of a bear market a protracted bear needs asset inflation, asset bubble high real estate non-performing loans failing banks non-performing assets in excess of performing assets and IMF around the corner to bail them out. Why should US stop growth, one of my most important indicator Marshallian K the ratio of wider liquidity M3 relative to GDP is unlike pre-87 crash showing me a level which indicates that not anytime soon we will usher in a bear market. The bear market in Japan was preceded by a drop of MK to -4% also in 95 a drop of ratio to -3.5% was witnessed in France. Earning momentum another indicator is also showing a tick upwards alongwith money supply M3 although M1 is lower the net affect of GDP and Fiscal impulse unlike 91-Japanese crash trending bullishly. I am rather shocked that 'bears' with absolutely no understanding of the big picture are making irrelevant comparisons, it only reflects to me some gurus have it easy and simple, I wish it was so easy to predict the overall course, last but not least markets rarely award those in sing in unison, it is never going to take the direction which majority wants it is going to take the direction which fundamentals demand. I can understand the urgency when one is out of the market it is always nice to dream to get stocks for free or summer sales, here on this thread we try not to let people sell their good stocks because we only introduce limited universe on global basis and try to protest our gains, in this way we make bears keep paying for guessing the fundamentals wrong. We are so far right since 1996 July but one should keep looking at looming clouds and act accordingly. Be a part of the market before deciding to play the market, money markets is play of older lot one who is out or want to come in later should check with the markets in three years time. . 1987, we had rising inflation, the world global yields were full 500 points higher, we had much lower productivity and last but not least far lower % age of exports to GDP, now we are in a position where even a 30% drop of exports in Asea pacific rim and overall drop of exports we still are more worried about fast growth it is not about over-capacity it is all about inflationary cycle-- the confusion has resulted in soft markets but you will see as third quarter emerges that we will see most of these economies reviving, I am expecting Japan and Europe to lead the second cycle. People without stakes on wishful thinking want to steal the stocks, I with a stake will do everything possible to protect my territory and I will hopefully be successful. Entry to market requires a heart and positive attitude, bears don't have the heart the courage to depart from money they put in short end of the market only noise on GLOBEX and it all dies down as the market pits rip them apart at opening. Some of the very same very same bears looking for entry at 7400 now were looking at a much more deeper drop on 28th Oct. The bears never makeup their minds. Making up of mind needs faith in the ability of 'US corporate' to continue the great momentum forward albeit with little pit falls, why should anything change now when all my proprietary indexes and indicators show nothing unusual. Ike