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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Braddock Bull who wrote (28199)	8/23/1998 8:00:00 PM
From: The Ox	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 95453

For months Diamond H has been voicing/posting his view about the OSX sector. The outlook he has continually stuck by was this sector was going to continue to be weak. For months the bulls on this thread have completely ignored his point of view. Now, some of you post that DH is only posting to further his short agenda. I personally don't see it that way. I am not short or long this sector. I am on the sidelines at the moment. But I have also been posting my concerns about this sector for the past few months. It also gets dismissed by Slider and the rest of you permabulls. The reality of the matter is that those people who have been buying and ignoring the voices of concern have lost serious money at this point in time. Did anyone pay attention to the oil futures on Friday? They headed south in a very big way. Very little bounce up. The oil services sector (as a group) will not make money while oil is below $15/barrel. The person who recently posted oil will be over $17 a barrel by September needs to buy a new crystal ball. If light crude trades over $15/barrel in September I will be very surprised. If we see a serious reversal in oil futures, then I say load up the boat. Those who buy now and are simply guessing and hoping that oil prices will reverse are unnecessarily sticking their necks out. I want to be an oil bull. I'm waiting to be an oil bull. I WON'T be an oil bull until there is a compelling reason. Simply applying current or future P/Es is not enough. Simply comparing 52 week highs to current prices is not enough. Oil prices under $15/barrel is NOT BULLISH. Those who say that we are at the bottom today are guessing. I don't invest on hope and guesses. I continue to voice my concern about this sector. Good luck to all, Michael

To: Braddock Bull who wrote (28199)	8/24/1998 2:04:00 AM
From: waverider	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95453

This will be good for me...before I say goodbye. Some clarification of my strategy: I am in the market to make money. Stocks provide a vehicle to do that. Going long, buying calls is a good method when the trend is up, right? Going short, buying puts is a good method when the trend is down, right? Now I know some people really get pissed off at others who short because it adds to the selling pressure...but the selling pressure wouldn't be there in the first place unless something was wrong, right? Emotions run high when people lose money and even cause them to say mean things like calling people "lying shorts", etc. That was really uncalled for Braddock, really. As I asked that Santiago guy, please provide me a post of mine that backs up that claim. Now you can argue all you want that I should have said I was shorting some of these stocks when I said I was popping in to provide some reality checks. Fine. What difference would it have made? The things I said were still true. Calling someone a liar isn't nice. Besides we can't all post all our trading activity here because frankly that is a pretty stupid thing to do. Privacy is hard enough to maintain. BUT I have made NO secret of shorting this sector before this past week. For your enjoyment, my previous posts detailing the "lies" I lied: My last warning on the sector (May 26th) before the major downdraft: Message 4591649 Then my first short in this sector (NE) on May 27th: Message 4609005 Then my cover on June 4th (way too early): Message 4733603 That said, where are we now? Folks, consider investing as a full time job and try to keep it as unemotional as possible. The goal is to MAKE MONEY. I know it is hard to think counter to a direction we have all been trained to think (LONG...invest for the LONG haul)...but to survive the stock market, one must be willing to change. NO strategy works all the time. Thean taught me that, and my experience confirmed it. Now is a confusing time. Trading is the order of the day and trading the downtrend is where the money is. That means puts and shorts. Just consider it. Otherwise turn off your computer and stop focusing on day to day ticks. Yes, good companies will usually go up...but that requires cooperating economies. We don't have that now. And if you are going to buy stocks for the long haul, buy growth stocks. Oil service stocks are NOT growth stocks. They are cyclical. If you buy cyclical stocks and are not a trader willing to bet both sides of the market you are a fool. Disc drives, airlines, semiconductors all fall into this category. O.K. so where am I now. A limited selection of my positions for people who must know...just this once: I am long NOTHING except cash. All my retirement accounts are in cash. I am short: INTC, G, and CXIPY. I wouldn't short any other oil service stocks because there are better downside returns elsewhere. I have several puts, but I'm not sayin' more than that. I generally clear my account by Friday afternoon so I don't have any positions held over the weekend. And now to save my time I shall depart from this den of foolishness and post elsewhere as most of the intelligent life on this thread did months ago. Funny, but I was one of the guys who drove the naysayers off this thread the first time. I hope some of you permabulls see the light too before both your health and your capital are caused some permanent harm. Godspeed. <H>