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Technology Stocks : Novell (NOVL) dirt cheap, good buy? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Paul Fiondella who wrote (23575)8/24/1998 7:42:00 AM
From: Frederick Smart  Respond to of 42771
 
The Killer App Is Coming....

Paul:

>>So it is that Schmidt is moving Novell's customers into the Internet age---without a plan, without a map, without a killer app. I call that a dangerous gamble.>>

I wouldn't look to Microsoft for the next "killer app". I see alot of technology in my "bouncing arounds" and I think we are on the verge of what I would consider to be a huge, mind-blowing release of the "killer app" the entire market is waiting for.

I have a sense from where this comes. I know Gate's and Cisco wants it, but I also know that the likelyhood of them getting it is really in question at this point.

All I know is that the Java camp is where all the fun surprises are. Why did Joy head over to Novell's board? What the Jinis going on! We'll just have to wait and seel

As for "plans and maps" - you keep thinking they HAVE to be wrapped around the average retail, small business Mr/Mrs. PC Joe & Jane. If you really think Microsoft will own this monopoly in this Internet age forever, then I can see your point.

I think Schmidt is doing a great job, but they need to start taking some heads off.



To: Paul Fiondella who wrote (23575)8/24/1998 10:37:00 AM
From: DavidD  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 42771
 
Paul,

You clearly miss-represented what was a positive conference call. Since this thread won't effect the stock price, and you weren't being forthcoming, I can only guess what your motive might have been....?

Anyway. you write as if giving the desktop to Microsoft is a bad thing. That is a mindset from the past. Novell only needs to sell to corporate customers to make their shareholders rich. They fell flat on their face when they tried to move to the PC last time around. If the BODs did anything else, I would drop out of the stock.

Novell is doing the smart thing by keeping expectations low, so that surprises will only be positive. Mr. Levy wasn't sure if it was a survey or a study or how old it was. It could be dated. Besides, 5% could be huge depending on the average price per seat. Keeping expectations low is what Intel and Microsoft have done for years. It gives me confidence that management won't give any guidance on revenues at this point, because if they did, it would just be "pie in the sky," and could ruin the stock performance.

Also, NDS works in an IP world. That is the whole point. To say that a company has to be NDS enabled top buy more Novell products is the dumbest thing I ever heard. NDS comes with NetWare 5.0 so it is a non- issue. If you have a large mission critical system, you will either go mainframe or Novell, NT can't cut the slack for those jobs. Every time I see a huge corporate merger on CNBC, I think, "gee, a new potential Novell customer!"

You wrote: >>So it is that Schmidt is moving Novell's customers into the Internet age---without a plan, without a map, without a killer app. I call that a dangerous gamble.<< The plan is to give Novells customers what NT can't, a directory centric network. The map is to rebuild confidence in Novell. Novell sold 272 million (most of it 3.x and 4.x sales) the quarter BEFORE 5.0 is to be released. This is a hugely positive indication that Novells customers have regained confidence in the company. Many of those sales were under licenses whereby the customer can upgrade to 5.0 for free. By inference, it is an indication of strong 5.0 sales.

Finally, a killer app won't effect the mission critical world, but would mainstream 5.0, so if it happens it will be gravy, and a lot of it!!!