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Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Bull RidaH who wrote (25032)	8/24/1998 1:32:00 AM
From: Moominoid	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 94695

Dell chart. IT IS THE ULTIMATE SHORT!! You certainly made me happy! It's good to hear when several methods come to the same conclusion. I am short at an average of $107 and change and taking a lot of abuse on the DELL thread. I use my own TA methods and FA. I didn't establish the position because of any feelings about weakness of DELL but because it does seem overinflated and has a big beta - it's part of my crash strategy. I would say 75 is pretty reasonable using my methods if it crashes.

To: Bull RidaH who wrote (25032)	8/24/1998 10:57:00 AM
From: edward miller	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 94695

David, Could you give your opinion about YHOO in the same light as DELL? This is more curiosity than serious because I will probably stay in cash anyway, but I was thinking that the fundamentals in the I-bubble are worse than in the boxbubble. Thanks, Ed

To: Bull RidaH who wrote (25032)	8/24/1998 12:17:00 PM
From: stockman_scott	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 94695

Shorting DELL is the most dangerous thing you can do. I have been long for quite some time and it has been the best decision I have ever made. Never bet against DELL or you will regret it. Here is an example of how the big money and the smart money are thinking: A top manager's top picks BancOne's Ashi Parikh outlines his strategy By Don Scott, CBS MarketWatch Last Update: 11:11 AM ET Aug 24, 1998 NEW YORK (CBS.MW) -- Want to position your portfolio for solid growth this fall and beyond? One of the top young money managers suggests that you look to the digital world. Ashi Parikh leads the team that manages the One Group Large Company Growth Fund, (SEEGX), for BancOne (ONE) (www.onegroup.com). At 32, he holds an MBA from Harvard University and has been managing money for the last six years. Morningstar's Principia Plus reports that through the July 31, the fund placed in the top 1 percent of large cap growth funds for the last 12 months (a 27.1 percent return), the top 16 percent over the last three years (27.5 percent annualized), and the top 6 percent over the last 5 years (22.9 percent annualized). Parikh said he looks for companies growing faster than the GDP. "And the company has to be growing faster than the industry," he said. Parikh wants companies in what he terms "high end markets" with defensible business models, low market share and "the ability to keep levering EPS and to sustain the ability to grow." Also key: great management with a vision of where their industry is headed and how to correctly capitalize on that growth. His top three stock ideas as summer draws to a close: "Hands down they'd be Microsoft (MSFT), America Online (AOL), and Dell Computer Corporation (DELL)." Software's juggernaut He says Microsoft still hasn't even begun its real growth, which he believes will accelerate as the company penetrates "the enterprise area." "This is a huge market opportunity where they have very low market share. And they are going to bring high quality, at a low cost to the enter price area." "Obviously it's not a traditionally cheap stock, but I think they have a growth that's sustainable at 40 plus percent." How will the Justice Department's antitrust efforts impact the company? "I don't think the Justice Department has a leg to stand on, because the government is protecting another competitor rather than protecting the consumer," he said. "Everybody wants to continue to buy Microsoft's products because they are the highest quality, lowest cost products and they are driving the cost of technology and computing down, not up." AOL and the Net Parikh sees the Internet market explosion continuing as more people buy cheaper computers, and he's concluded AOL is the company best positioned to come out a winner. "They have a very comprehensive relationship with their customer base, a very, very solid relationship with the mass market and ultimately this is going to be a mass market kind of avenue." He says AOL has such a head start that only Yahoo, among competitors, has a chance of being a player in the future. Parikh figures "this be a $300 billion type of space over the next five to seven years and AOL can capture 15 to 20 percent of that, which warrants it being a $50 billion to $60 billion company." Its current market cap is about $23.9 billion. And earnings? "I think that at three years out, the number is going to be closer to the $4 or $5 range, which is why you still have a stock that could double over the next 2 or 3 years." PCs and Dell "Dell is Dell," says Parikh, "They have a direct relationship with their customers, continue to compound growth at 50 plus percent and yet they still only have 8 percent of the worldwide PC market." He believes they will increase that market share to 15 percent. He notes that Compaq (CPQ) is trying to copy Dell's direct sales approach, but he doesn't think Compaq will be able to catch up. He also notes that Dell now generates about a quarter of its revenue over the Internet and that CEO Michael Dell has said that will grow to 50 percent over the next three to five years. "So again," says Parikh, "lowest cost, highest quality, very defensible business model." He notes earnings are always stated too low. "Right now the consensus for next year's number is $2.75. We think that could go to $3.25. Add a very solid 45 PE to that and it still leaves a lot of room for Dell."