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Strategies & Market Trends : Asia Forum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Joseph Beltran who wrote (5830)	8/24/1998 12:43:00 PM
From: Zeev Hed	Respond to of 9980

Joseph, you are absolutely right, and the "misbehavior" of the transportation (brushing last October lows with crude at 30% below last October) is just another little clue. When the Dow breaches 8250, it will become clear to a greater proportion of the investing public that the paradigm of the last 15 years is not longer in effect. However, it will take quite sometime until this will sink in. By the time it will sink in, we could very well see the signs of a new recovery. Zeev

To: Joseph Beltran who wrote (5830)	8/24/1998 1:05:00 PM
From: Robert Douglas	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 9980

I'll take indexes for 500 Alex. The answer is: An unweighted average of Coffee, Cocoa, Gold, Platinum, Silver, Hogs, Cattle, Copper, Crude Oil, Wheat, Soybeans, Corn, Heating Oil and Natural Gas. What is the CRB? Yes that's right. This vaunted signal of deflationary woes is an UNWEIGHTED average. This means that oil counts the same as platinum, even though platinum's sales will be about $1.8 billion versus $350 billion for oil this year. Is this the measure you are relying on as a predictor of economic and price trends? A bad storm in the Ivory Coast could have as much influence on the CRB as a 1970's style oil crisis. I think you should find a better yardstick. -Robert