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Technology Stocks : THREE FIVE SYSTEM (TFS) - up from here? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Noblesse Oblige who wrote (2296)	8/25/1998 1:50:00 AM
From: Doug Meetmer	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 3247

With regard to selling equity when they could have, I must offer that it is always easy to be a monday morning quarterback. All of us on this thread and I am sure management as well was looking for this to be a $30 stock by year-end. Had they sold equity when the price was $20, we would have been criticizing them when the price hit $30. Now we are criticizing them at a price of $9.50. Surely the fact that you plan to bail (or are quietly bailing) on this stock is a clear-cut contrarian indicator that we can only go up from here. Isn't that when you know the bear market is over? It's when the sentiment is lowest. I believe this stock is dead money for at least 6 months, mainly because people are concerned that the next quarter will also be weak due to continued margin pressure. On the other hand, if the company's prediction is true, that next quarter won't be as bad, we will get a mild tug upward. You know as well as I do that if the company were to announce a couple of multi-million dollar orders for some of their advanced technology, the market would react appropriately. The problem is, that all of us expect TFS to NOT announce any major orders and rather to continue to rely upon cheap, commodity technology. So that is the crux of the problem: Thin margins due to reliance upon commoditized products and lack of investor expectation for any significant contribution by higher margin technology for (IMHO) at least 2 years. If we have early announcements that indicate that early adoptors of LCOS or LCiD will significantly impact the bottom line, then we move upward. If we don't get such announcements, we will be forced to assume the worst-that we will continue to be in a bear market for commoditized LCD displays. Cheers, Doug