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To: Andrew Vance who wrote (15368)	8/25/1998 12:15:00 PM
From: Kachina	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 17305

Well, I took a big dive into Ciena (CIEN) this morning after digging into the picture. Apparently what killed this stock was the dumping of arbitrage positions after the merger vote was killed at the literal last minute by a phone call from AT&T. AT&T had been "evaluating" Ciena products for over a year, and AT&T exec called to disclose new pertinent information that they would not be buying Ciena products. This threw the legal switch that meant the merger with TLAB could not go forward since the info was not disclosed to shareholders. BUT - no AT&T revenue was discussed or planned on anyway in Ciena's disclosures. It was a technicality. Does the fact that AT&T execs hold a lot of Lucent stock have anything to do with this play/ploy? This caused the arbs to close out their positions and scramble which is why the stock hit 27. But - Lucent still lags way, way behind, about a year. And Ciena is still selling to most of the world. Plus, AT&T could, and is quite likely to "reevaluate" their position on Ciena. There is a second merger suitor waiting in the wings who has put an offer on the table which was roughly equivalent. This is rumored to be Cisco, which makes sense. The TLAB merger vote has been rescheduled to 9/9/98. Wish me luck folks, I hopped this train.

To: Andrew Vance who wrote (15368)	8/25/1998 10:16:00 PM
From: Investor2	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 17305

I would appreciate your thoughts on the following: Message 5587075 techstocks.com Thanks, I2

To: Andrew Vance who wrote (15368)	11/13/1998 2:44:00 PM
From: Andrew Vance	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 17305

AV---Dale-I hope you are still holding onto this gem, especially after such a nice compliment from me.<GGG> Message 5575025 Still looking for the newsletter and found a few issues. but then, I found this<GGG>. Andrew I just found this one and boy does it ring true. Good thing about this post is that it PREDATES the end of August major market reversal. I would love for a comparison to be made for the stocks in this group then versus now, even with the large declines they must haqve experienced. Timing might have been off big time but the end results might have turned out good in the long run. To: +Baird Soule (15366 ) From: +Andrew Vance Monday, Aug 24 1998 1:45PM ET Reply #15368 of 15866 AV--DUV, Copper, Cleaning, CMP, etc. are all enabling technologies required for the next generation of devices. But, there are also differences between the front end and backend (Interlevel dielectrics and metallizations) between DRAM and logic type devices. Therefore, there are some imbalances that need to be rectified when converting from one type of device manufacturing to another. The consolidations you speak of could cause some plants to shutdown but others to be retrofitted. There is also the possibility of shifting assets from one division to another of from one company to another thorugh equipment brokers. But along the way, there will be a need to upgrade and implement device technology in order to remain competitive. I like looking for the enabling technologies that are almost guaranteed to prosper. You can only hold back the flood waters so long before someone jumps in to adopt a new technology, and as you have suggested, become first to market. This could be the equipment or the IC device itself. First to market gets you high margin, profits, and hopefully decent proce appreciation. Andrew Thius one looks nice also<GG> To: +Justa Werkenstiff (15274 ) From: +Andrew Vance Wednesday, Aug 19 1998 4:55PM ET Reply # of 15866 AV NVLS in the 40-42 range was where I was shorting it and buying back in the 26-38 range, approximately. Without going into all the gyrations, NVLS was purchased today in the high 36s just prior to the close and I will wait for the upswing past 40 to sell.