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Gold/Mining/Energy : Trico Marine Services (TMAR) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: D.J.Smyth who wrote (753)	8/25/1998 6:37:00 PM
From: D.J.Smyth	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 1153

the bottom line is that our calculations show $.40 to $.45 this quarter and $.36 to $.40 in the 4th quarter using 65% utilization for day rates dropping from $6500 a day to $5900 a day on average in the 4th given current contracts running out into the 4th. Jefferies shows $.33 next quarter and $.17 in the 4th. i don't know where they come up with such low numbers. frankly i think our numbers could be low. if they do $.45 or better this quarter all our calculations are off. we'll just see. obviously the market thinks they'll earn $.05 with day rates at $4k. i suppose they're caluculating this for the first quarter of next year and are using certain current costs as remaining fixed. certain fixed cost items, however, decrease for the 4th quarter and 1st quarters of 1999 and other cost items should also be lower. even so, isn't this stock underpriced even at $1.29 in earnings estimates given by Jefferies for 1999? if the price of oil begins to stabilize above $16, the boats should be among the first stocks bought back since a natural shortage is being created due to the rig count. 90% of the rigs will continue pumping as they wait for the price of oil to move back up. if you're out of the game, it can take a jack up rig AT LEAST three months to reset and hire all the necessary help/conracts. such a "rush" creates an immediate spike in boat rates as those rigs cashing in early are caught. Trico then, all of a sudden, spikes above $15.