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Technology Stocks : Brightpoint - CELL -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: mauser96 who wrote (854)	8/25/1998 5:28:00 PM
From: Paul Shread	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 1999

Lucius, All good points. We may have to wait for the January effect, which for some odd reason now begins after Thanksgiving. Nonetheless, I am not convinced that you are not selling at or close to the bottom. This market is oversold and poised to bounce. Put-to-call ratio on the CBOE was at 1.20 as of Friday; a strong rally follows within two weeks of a ratio greater than 1 better than 90% of the time (I believe it has failed to ignite a rally just once since 1986). All the bad news is now out; now that Latin America has been dragged into the picture, what's left? I think we're poised for at least a technical bounce. Despite the abysmally ugly technicals, I think CELL is too cheap to sell here. We're poised for a rally on earnings a la January, not a sell-off a la July. Besides, did you notice that DLJ study earlier today that said the average NYSE and Nasdaq stock is now down 37% (the 1987 figure was 44% at the early December trough)? That's severe bear market stuff, the nifty fifty notwithstanding. We may be range-bound, but I don't see how we can go lower in this low-interest, low-inflation environment. Good luck to you, but my rule is to sell only when the company's picture changes, and CELL's picture has not changed, IMHO. Paul P.S. I notice you've stopped defending the Japanese.