To: Roger Arquilla who wrote (17795 ) 8/27/1998 12:28:00 AM From: Kerry Lee Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 29386
Roger, you wrote: <<We are well into the third quarter at this point. Do you, or anyone else who is reading this, have any idea if Ancor has sold anything this quarter? I am beginning to get the feeling of panic, that we may be headed towards another revenue report like the last quarter. A 50% drop from this price would just about wipe this company out, not to mention many investors like myself who are hanging on by only the smallest of margin.>> The revised Kinnard revenue estimate for F'98 is $3.6 million and for F'99 is approx $14 million ( down from $38 million in April estimate ). I assume these reduced numbers reflect the delayed FC SAN market adoption/sales ramp until second half '99, but I have also been told that ANCR has not given any guidance to Kinnard. The lower numbers should be no surprise to anyone who listened to the conference call and followed up with questions to mgmt since Japan business collapsed due to Honda and Hucom no longer ordering and ANCR sales re-structuring away from LAN market. If you are hanging by a thread, it is possible ( but not guaranteed ) that ANCR stock price could respond positively to any financing/OEM/other contract announcement sometime this year. For example, IF Ancor collects any/some/all of the unpaid $1 million of collectibles from Hucom, since the revenue was not recognized in Q2, it is upside. Also, any potential Boeing AWACS business or other unexpected LAN business is potential upside to current expectations, especially since the old quarter speed switch/adapter inventory has already been written off.In other words, IMHO, the current $1.25 stock price ( $15-20 million market cap )not only discounts zero expectations ( zero sales/zero OEM deals ), it also reflects extremely negative investor sentiment by its retail investor base , it assumes that Ancor declares bankruptcy very soon and also reflects a certain degree of both early tax loss selling and Series B Reg D conversion/selling, which has held down the stock. For those who have posted concerns on SI/Yahoo about any impending auditor statement, any potential "going concern statement" is a once a year event, ie at the annual year end audit in Feb/March.Unlike other companies like FPAM and TOWV which missed payments to their bondholders and subsequently nosedived to a buck before declaring Chapter 11, I am not aware that Ancor has any long term debt or bondholders who are due any payments anytime soon. Ancor has already publicly stated that they are actively seeking a cash infusion due to the expected low revenues for the next 2-4 quarters coupled with monthly expenses of $1 million. They had $5 million as of June 30. This math is not rocket science. Roger, since you're so adept at asking probing questions, if you want information from more "reliable" sources, I suggest you phone Brocade and ask them about the state of the FC market and how many people Brocade has recently layed off and why.Then ask them how you can get in on their hot IPO. Look forward to hearing your report and continued valuable contributions to this thread.Perhaps Trendmaster and Srvhap/Janski can also call Brocade and help you in your "search for the truth".