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Pastimes : Let's Talk About Our Feelings!!! -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Ish who wrote (24590)	8/25/1998 10:57:00 PM
From: Dayuhan	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 108807

Ish, China is actually emerging as a major economic stabilizing force in a region which badly needs it. They are not nearly so dependent on trade as their neighbors, and are thus relatively well insulated. I don't worry about them in a security sense either. They have too much to gain from stability; they've seen what they can gain and they know they want it. They may be ruthless pragmatists, but they are pragmatists, and they can be relied on (to the extent that anyone can) to behave with some degree of rationality. Fascinating to watch a controlled move out of Communism. Far superior to the Russian version, both from an economic and a security perspective. Russia is an economic writeoff, and in a real free market would have to be allowed to do a total crash. They will have to be bailed out, though, as a total crash would make the emergence of an extreme nationalist government almost inevitable. Whether such a government is communist or fascist won't matter, it would be equally dangerous either way. The big question is how to give enough help to prevent such a government from emerging without subsidizing the vultures. It won't be easy. The Asia Forum thread is a good place to keep up with the daily permutations of the Asian story (which is fast reaching a critical point). The participants are mostly Asians who live in the West and Westerners who live or have lived in Asia, and the level of discussion is impressive. Clinton is walking a dangerous line re China, but it has to be walked. Cooperation is sought, carrots must be dangled and given. The key is to offer enough without giving away too much, which makes it a very complicated equation. I'm not close enough to the process to really criticize. Campaign contributions would not have been smart; again, I don't know the details of that story well enough to criticize. I would rather have China inside the tent pissing out than outside the tent pissing in. And I'd rather have Clinton dealing with the world economic crisis then fighting out a pre-impeachment scenario. Sorry, I run long. Becoming a bad habit these days. Steve