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Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Philipp who wrote (25204)8/26/1998 7:21:00 AM
From: Vitas  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 94695
 
One thing to keep an eye on is the NYSE over 200 day moving average percentage:

decisionpoint.com

The approx. 28-30% seems to be a breakpoint.

TC2000 has the current percentage at 28%, but their figures may not correlate exactly to those on the chart. See Monty's figures.

Vitas



To: Philipp who wrote (25204)8/26/1998 8:58:00 AM
From: Paxb2u  Respond to of 94695
 
Phillip,

What are you using to measure your sentiment indicators, please.

Thanks,

Peter :o)



To: Philipp who wrote (25204)8/26/1998 6:27:00 PM
From: bobby beara  Read Replies (3) | Respond to of 94695
 
Philip, not all wavers are bearish

tiger.golden.net

This guy is looking for 1360 and then there is Wolanchuk top timer in timers digest looking for Dow 16,000 this year and the epicenter of primary wave 3 (as he was last year -g- but then again he has been the top timer for a year or two now)

>>>Crashes occur when most people don't expect them<<<

Only about 5 weeks ago the II bull/bear ratio was 55/22, so only about a month ago we had a peak reading. So you might say only about a month ago nobody expected a crash or a bear market (this is how bubbles burst IMHO)

I agree the negative sentiment looks very bullish, but we have been unable to mount a decent rally on this negative sentiment that has been around since the 8/4 300 point drop. During the bull market we would not have lasted more than a few days with this kind negative sentiment before mounting a multi-week rally, as of now we have been below the neckline on NYSE lazy double top since that high volume break on 8/4 and that may override the short term sentiment.

You might say that since we are so oversold, most of the bulls (and plenty of bears) might think we need another rally before the bear market continues or the crash begins - WHAT IF surprise, we didn't get that rally.

the game may have changed?

bwdik, imho
bb