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To: growthvalue who wrote (569)	8/26/1998 6:07:00 PM
From: softcash	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 2477

growthvalue, you need an Economic's lesson - begin here! Can you say DEFLATION, Asia crisis, Yen(from 88 to 147), non-exisitent inflation, gold from 400 to 290, cheap oil, unstable Russian economy, inverted YIELD curve (30yr interest rate is smaller than small term interest rates), world market interdependence, layoffs (MOT, AMAT, NSM), weak semiconductor sector, -- these things have absolutely NOTHING to do with Y2K. Maybe you meant El Nino?! Greenspan has not performed well this past year. His inaction is putting America and the world on the brink of DeFLATION! Here's a very good explanation that was post recently: cbs.marketwatch.com On interest rates, at least, we have something of a consensus from CBS MarketWatch users. We are seeing grassroots support for reduced levels from Alan Greenspan's Federal Reserve. Or so our readers say, as they mostly agree with CBS MarketWatch.com chief economist Irwin Kellner, who complains that real interest rates (the difference between a 1.5 percent consumer inflation pace and a 5.5 percent federal funds rate) are way too high. "It seems that while Mr. Greenspan and his cohorts sit vigilantly guarding the beachhead against an inflation tsunami, a gigantic sinkhole is approaching them from behind that could swallow us all up before too long," says Bob Silvestri, an occasional contributor to this space. That sinkhole is deflation. Commodity futures prices, represented by the Bridge/CRB Index, neared 12-year lows Monday. (See Futures Movers.) "Exports have fallen off a cliff. Commodity- production-dependent nations [such as those in] the Middle East, Venezuela, most of the Third World are bleeding badly," says Silvestri, a trustee at Tiburon Group Pension Plans in California. (Oil prices are near a 10-year low. Gold prices earlier this year touched an 18-year low.) Silvestri points out that real interest rates have been rising for more than three years. "And through it all," he says, "Greenspan and company remain obsessed about the valuation of the stock market. So I say, 'Lower rates now! Let the stock market go to 10,000.' ... It's the engine that will pull the world out of its slump and kick start a turnaround." After stating this, I would say YOU DON't know about economics! If you use Y2K as a factor in all this - you need to do some reading - you could start with this little introduction first and then go to Barnes and Noble and get a couple of economics books.

To: growthvalue who wrote (569)	10/16/1998 11:28:00 PM
From: softcash	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 2477

Growthvalue, are you still around? Do you recall post #567 ?? On August 26th, I posted that Greenspan wants a market crash. 5 days later we got it, on August 31. I also mentioned that the REAL interest rates were too high, way too high. I also said in their that we are dependent upon the world and they on us as never before. Greenspan echoed these very same words just prior to his first increase. In fact it was a rare hint to us all that he was about to decrease rates. Well now he increased them twice. My our economy wasn't in such good shape as you erroneously assumed, heh? At the beginning of October, I was alittle disappointed that Greenspan did not decrease rates 50 basis points. In fact I was very concerned about another October crash. The market loves to crash in October. I formally apologize to Mr. Greenspan for calling him an idiot. I think he changed his attitude in time. Just think last July he was about to INCREASE rates !??!! That would have been utterly catastrophic. You'all don't know how close to disaster we all were. I give him a B-. He should have decrease rates 25 basis points last March-April, just when Japan was having much larger problems. I might add, even though the rates are getting in line, we are still not out of the woods. Alot still depends upon our foreign neighbors. Our country has shown leadership. It's now up to Japan to take over. They will need to pass banking reforms that actually work and they will need to show leadership in ASIA. ASIA will not get out of recession/depression so quickly. Lowering our rates helps them alot. I think if we are trading in ttf monetary units, you owe me 4 beers: 2 for two market crashes and two for two rate decreases. Probably should make that five, since Greenspan just about repeated my post concerning our dependency on our foreign neighbor's economies, word for word. Yes, make that 5 Fosters.