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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Proud_Infidel who wrote (23342)	8/26/1998 11:13:00 AM
From: 16yearcycle	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 70976

When to buy: Right now, I have about 300 better places for my money, as a result of the bear market in transports, and small caps. The short term business outlook for the cap equips is awful, for all the reasons stated here ad nauseum. I am not confident in a 1999 recovery. Personally, I need to see drastic measures taken by Japan which will allow the Asian distortions to slow and reverse. Right now, the US and Europe are the only "safe havens," and europe will go to one currency, which will be sure to cause temporary dislocations. Furthermore, amat's price is too high based on the 1 year outlook. Granted that this is my interpretation using a model that serves me well. Bottom line: Asia has to improve or amat has to become very cheap. Today, cheap looks like 23. I am uninterested until it approaches that number.

To: Proud_Infidel who wrote (23342)	8/26/1998 11:41:00 AM
From: Justa Werkenstiff	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

Brian: Re:"BTW, I hear many Bears say they want to wait for a rosier picture before commiting to the long side, at which point, it will already be reflected in the stock. Most of the Bears think they can have the former w/o the latter being true." Good point. If you look at the price of AMAT during 1996, the best time to buy was in early September 1996 under a risk/reward basis when total equipment orders were still in decline as measured by SEMI. The turn was speculated correctly by the market before orders were actually reported by SEMI as improving. The first time one would have seen a turn as reported by SEMI would have been with the reporting of the October BTB in November 1996. But by then AMAT was trading steadily up from $11.50 in September to about $16.00. Your insurance premium would have been 40% off the September low. If you had waited to after the AMAT cc on November, your premium would have been over 50% off the September low. Yes, I realize I am talking off the September lows and nobody ever completely gets the low. I am trying to illustrate a point here. And, of course, one must correctly speculate as to when the turn will occur. Or one can establish a position on weakness.

To: Proud_Infidel who wrote (23342)	8/26/1998 12:07:00 PM
From: akidron	Respond to of 70976

SLB @ 80, OXP @18... made a killing on SLB, lost a little on OXHP... bought back both today.... FYI IMO u buy AMAT when the market capitulates... It has not.... IMO there is another round of write-offs to come and this, as it is not expected will break the camels back. I expect big losses 1st Q 99. By the way, I have never claimed to be right all the time, but I do OK.

To: Proud_Infidel who wrote (23342)	8/26/1998 4:09:00 PM
From: Gary Burton	Respond to of 70976

Brian--that's why I watch charts! A gorilla like amat is overanalysed and one is dealing with in effect perfect information. So, fundamentals are irrelevant in a case such as this. Only the net movement of emotion at the margin means anything. At the moment, the chart is suggesting that at the margin there is still some more net pessimism or worry to come even in a perfect information world. Why-beats me and I don't care. Could have nothing to do with semiequips per se.