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Strategies & Market Trends : Asia Forum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Brad Bolen who wrote (5897)	8/26/1998 1:59:00 PM
From: Robert Douglas	Read Replies (5) \| Respond to of 9980

OT Paul Krugman I know this thread is filled with admirers of Paul Krugman and so it is with great hesitancy that I mention the following comment by the highly esteemed economist. It seems he is quoted in the latest issue of "Business Week" saying "The truth is that we live in an age not of extraordinary progress but of technological disappointment." How do I cancel my membership in SI and can I get a refund? Comments? -Robert

To: Brad Bolen who wrote (5897)	8/26/1998 2:48:00 PM
From: Paul Berliner	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 9980

I don't get all this stuff about 'wearing down the speculators' until only a few remain. The specs have been attacking the $HK for around a full year now (since the handover), and thus have also made quite a tidy sum shorting HSBC and other bellweathers since the handover. I don't think it would matter even if the HKMA continues buying for another month, driving the HS back to 10,000. The specs are still way on the plus side and have plenty of winnings left over to toy with the $HK. There's already talk about them rolling their positions over into forward contracts and the game will thus continue until the HKMA gives up, because the specs certainly won't. Everybody knows devaluation is imminent. They question now isn't 'will they' but 'when will they'. Also, I don't see how HK would consider a complete dollarizing of the economy. And I doubt such an action would blow speculators out of the water anyway... you're talking about an enormous abrupt spike in the HS which can't happen because there's no volume and no buying interest. Sharply lower rates would only take the HS so high... not back to pre handover levels. Lastly, thestreet.com, which has been considerably lacking on the currency view since derosa left, had an article today by DMGL currency officianado Marc Chandler on Hanke, HK & C-boards. You can get a free trial if you're not a member: thestreet.com

To: Brad Bolen who wrote (5897)	8/27/1998 6:59:00 AM
From: tom	Respond to of 9980

HKMA now owns 2% of HSBC (one of the top 5 shareholders). It was a massive buyer of HK today buying US$2.3bn in the cash market. They were agressively holding up HK Telecom and HSBC with US$500m trading in HK Telecom. Fund managers and hedge funds all over the world are dumping stock on to the most willing, and stupid, buyer in the market. The risk reward profile in shorting HK is extremely favourable. There are very few times when such opportunities present themselves. Sell HK agressively. On Monday the situation should be resolved as the HSI Sep Future is trading at a huge discount to cash. Either the market falls or the futures rise. HSI 7923 (trading at 7807 in London) HSI (Aug Fut) 7922 (expires tomorrow) HSI (Sep Fut) 7610 Up until 14/8/98 I thought HK would keep the peg. Now I'm pretty sure they won't.

To: Brad Bolen who wrote (5897)	8/27/1998 7:05:00 AM
From: tom	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 9980

HKMA now owns 2% of HSBC (one of the top 5 shareholders). It was a massive buyer of HK today buying US$2.3bn in the cash market. They were aggressively holding up HK Telecom and HSBC with US$500m trading in HK Telecom. Fund managers and hedge funds all over the world are dumping stock on to the most willing, and stupid, buyer in the market. The risk reward profile in shorting HK is extremely favourable. There are very few times when such opportunities present themselves. Sell HK aggressively. On Monday the situation should be resolved as the HSI Sep Future is trading at a huge discount to cash. Either the market falls or the futures rise. HSI 7923 (trading at 7807 in London) HSI (Aug Fut) 7922 (expires tomorrow) HSI (Sep Fut) 7610 Up until 14/8/98 I thought HK would keep the peg. Now I'm pretty sure they won't.