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Technology Stocks : MRV Communications (MRVC) opinions? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Sheldon Feinstein who wrote (10266)	8/26/1998 4:39:00 PM
From: Ron B	Respond to of 42804

The price already HAS been cut in half from a year ago. I think bad news is already priced in the stock, so IF there are no cooked books AND the company really has earned $30 million over the past year-- then a rebound will happen. We now trade at 9X next yr's projected earnings. About 1/3 of what it should be trading at, IMO.

To: Sheldon Feinstein who wrote (10266)	8/26/1998 5:15:00 PM
From: PaperChase	Respond to of 42804

If your gut tells you something is wrong, then are you buying protective puts? Good luck to the longs. I'm an observer here based soley on the price action being totally "illogical" compared to MRVC's underlying fundamentals. Therefore, Mr. Pink has credibility in my eyes. Many inexperienced and silly shareholders on this thread believe Mr. Pink is somehow the "cause" of this negative price action. Mr. Pink is just the messenger and an astute one at that.

To: Sheldon Feinstein who wrote (10266)	8/26/1998 5:19:00 PM
From: David Semoreson	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 42804

Shedlon said "I defy anyone to explain the action of this stock, over the last year or two, in light of the numbers, unless the numbers are being cooked." The answer is FEAR. Over excess inventory? or salespeople leaving? or SEC investigations? Combine these fears with serious short activity and low name recognition in a bad tech market, and here we are. I hope all of the investors who hang through continue to have a long-term view this don't sell on the way up ... make the shorts pay! ** David

To: Sheldon Feinstein who wrote (10266)	8/26/1998 6:25:00 PM
From: Cube	Respond to of 42804

Sheldon, I was burned BADLY this year by TRII. Their investor relations dept. personally assured me that all rumors were false and that there was no possibility of an problems with their audit. The CEO said the exact same thing on institutional teleconference one day before the stock was halted pending news. Stock was at 16. It opened at noon down 50%, investigation showed all rumors to be true. Release of 10K was delayed so Nasdaq delisted them. They trade on BB at about 3 today. The salient point here is ONE DAY BEFORE THE STOCK WAS HALTED, CEO told everyone all was well. CEO's can lie, stock price never lies. Cube

To: Sheldon Feinstein who wrote (10266)	8/26/1998 7:33:00 PM
From: J. Conley	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 42804

Sheldon, I do not think there is a rational explanation for the price action, except to say the stock is firmly controlled by psychological factors not fundamental ones. MRVC is not the only one. Also, when this downtrend started in earnest over the Summer, I believe the stock was being manipulated by the MMs. The one thing I am confounded by is the lack of insider selling. I have seen, followed, and shorted, many what I believed to be scam companies. I do not remember one company that I have followed, that subsequently crashed on bad news, that did not have insiders dumping shares and/or padding salaries before the bad news was publicly known. After all, if the company is a scam, and the outlook is bleak, wouldn't the insiders know? I do agree with others who have stated that management is asleep at the wheel regarding the shareholders. Look at their qualifications; all accomplished engineers. Their skills are in running the company and developing technology, not in dealing with the street, and that is reflected in the share price. jc

To: Sheldon Feinstein who wrote (10266)	8/26/1998 8:07:00 PM
From: His Pinkness	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 42804

It is sad that Pink could so unravel you. The stock price action is easily understood. First, the correlation between the MRVC price and the Russell 2000 is remarkable. Second, there is no liquidity in small stocks, MRVC included. All of the real money is going to big caps. No buyers means decreasing price. Third, shorts got heavily involved just before the convertible issue arose. Such issues are always good short opportunities. Because of first and second above, there was no reason for the shorts to cover; indeed, it was reason to increase short positions. Look at the short holdings. They have increased dramatically. The increased short selling combined with the lack of liquidity and the declining demand for small caps has made it impossible for the stock price to go up. Who provides the volume? Not SI readers. It is primarily institutions and mutual funds. Can you name a good reason to buy MRVC now. Sure, it is undervalued. But why buy now when it may go lower? The smart buyers will wait until the stock has clearly bottomed. That will also likely require a bottom in the Russell 2000. When will that happen? No one knows. Add to the mix the great uncertainty in world economics and you have the mix for a very poorly performing stock. In the short run -- maybe another week or two -- the stock should continue to languish. By the time earnings are released the price will return to $25. Why do I make this prediction? First, there will be no revelation of any SEC investigation nor any accounting improprieties. These allegations are a short driven smokescreen that not only play upon the fears of longs but suck in unwitting, unsophisticated investors who go short. Second, we should receive a recommendation by PRU. Third, investors will come to realize the import of the newest member of the board of directors. Fourth, smart Wall Street investors will begin sucking up the undervalued small caps. One last comment. Why hasn't PRU already made a recommendation? Because they are smart. Why would they recommend a stock that is subject to the down draft in small caps? If the recommendation was made last week or today, it would have no impact because there is no liquidity for MRVC. PRU will await the liquidity. Then they can look like heros by making what in hindsight will be an obvious recommendation. How do you lose money in the market? Buy high, sell low. The individual investors are getting creamed on this one. Those on Wall Street will make money because they will soon buy and sell high.

To: Sheldon Feinstein who wrote (10266)	8/26/1998 10:39:00 PM
From: signist	Respond to of 42804

Sheldon, You have debated every possible aspect of how individual shareholders should consider many factors to stay in or out of this or any other tech stock against someone who, at first, resorted to any means to to cast doubt among individual shareholders regarding MRVC. If one would really read what the SEC has stated recently in regards to GAAPs that they intend to become aggressive in enforcing these accounting procedures that IBM. Cisco, Lucent, and on and on have abused, they have not, as far as I know, singled out MRVC as flagrantly abusing these procedures. Only that they are reviewing MRVC's yearly report in the "normal process" that is usually done buy the SEC. Not to mention MRVC has probably the most respected accounting firm, in the business. Now, to see that you, of all people, have had your confidence shaken by the stock's price, and have doubts about management's motives, as and we all have, at one time or another, complained, disagreed, bitched, whined and (heaven forbid) some spoke of a shareholder lawsuit, greatly distresses me. Your investment in MRVC is very significant, as relatively, mine is to me. (1/3 margined) from 33 to 17.5 over a two year period. Down approx. 40% and in this type of business have learned every lesson the hard way...by paying our good money for them. Out of respect for your recent hard work you have posted here, and then have Mr. Pink show his respect of your work, by his most recent post, I had to look up the word irony and there was Mr. Pink's recent post to you.(g) IMO I found it amazing he would offer words of encouragement to us (as "we")? An act of contrition?? I know you know all this but in a Bear market this is a classic example of the pain we all experience, if we are Long. No Pain ..no gain. If this is true, we all should be millionaires! As Dana would say " Hang in there youngins" Good Luck John