Raptor,
I think this is a lousy day to sell stocks!Maybe a better answer is to show You my holdings (not, what I sold)
time stock buy 27.8. % buy ttm % P/E ttm
price price value P/E P/E P/S
29.01.97 adpt 40,88 12,06 30% 43 43,1 100% 1,5
08.07.98 adpt 13,68 12,06 9
22.06.98 asnd 48,00 43,63 91% 104 44,1 42% 7
17.06.98 qntm 19,88 15,56 78% 18 30,5 168% 0,4
29.01.97 efii 46,30 17,75 38% 51 29,6 58% 2,7
17.04.98 tdfx 32,67 12,63 39% 90 11,3 13% 1,4
17.06.98 tdfx 16,25 12,63 78% 47 11,3 24%
17.04.98 itwo 36,75 18,63 51% 234 81 35% 4,8
27.10.97 psft 29,94 31,63 106% 106 47,2 45% 6,7
27.10.97 sebl 21,69 25,44 117% 117 60,6 52% 8,6
All my stocks are growth stocks. Some are badly battered. But none, except Quantum, is today more expensive from a P/E standpoint, than, when I bought it. I am a bad market timer, when it comes to selling. But when I can buy growth at a good price, meaning a P/E less than the % annual expected growth, than, I hope at last, things will work out fine.
Qantum is a turn-around-play, and therefore different.
I diversified, to reduce my risk. But with these turbogrowth stocks I carry enormous risk. +100% or -50% in a years timeframe are normal.
Still I hesitate to buy Cisco at a P/E of 80, with ecpected annual grotwh of just 35%. Too expensive for me.
In half a Year we will laugh about the Russia crisis. I remember crisises like
Rate hike Okt 1988: Stocks crashed
Unemployment rate drop from 5,6 to 5,2% july 1996: Stocks crashed.
Thai Baht devaluation autumn 1997: Stocks crashed
Russias debt default 28.8.1998: Stocks crash now!
But - for how long? Sometimes a few days, or sometimes stocks leaked another 4 to 12 weeks. Those, who bought in that lousy times were ampl rewarded for their taken risk.
Unless Your company leaves business, bankrupts, or alike, one share is still is one share, no matter the price. Put the shares value in perspective to future earnings, and then decide whether this lousy day to sell stocks, or may be a day to buy stocks?
I wait some more time and keep my stock. When I miss the boat to buy, well then the tide will lift what I have. When I buy more on margin, the right time, I will gain big(at high risk).
After the russian crisis, comes regular earnings warnings season at quarter end. Can news get worse? I don't think by then. So I plan to take a thorough look at buying more stock in the midst of bad news end September.
See You in September.
Regards Lutz
l.moeller@snafu.de
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