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Strategies & Market Trends : Telebras (TBH) & Brazil -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: md1derful who wrote (7206)	8/27/1998 4:53:00 PM
From: MGV	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 22640

I fully intend to play with this as well Doc. The volatility is so heightened that there exists an opportunity to trade it right now. At the same time, I will not disturb a core position. If anything, I have a bias toward building it more. How much I trade and how much I add to the core will depend on its movement. Yes, I think there will be some more pain here. Its a state of mind isnt't it? There are institutional investors and hedge fund managers that have constraints that I don't have (short term performance measurement). Those constraints of theirs give me an advantage. It might even allow me to beat their butts short term as well as long term. So the pain that is out there, that they are feeling is much more palpable to them. Lets use that Doc (RK, dj, Jerry, Steve(s) and all).

To: md1derful who wrote (7206)	8/27/1998 5:15:00 PM
From: CuttotheCore	Respond to of 22640

This is so bad that those who don't capitulate and sell will have to capitulate and buy, so I think we get a little relief rally too. But it will be undermined by the don't sleep on it or take it home for the weekend crowd. They are in control of the mkt right now by default (no one else is stepping up). Also remember end of month. Best.

To: md1derful who wrote (7206)	8/27/1998 5:30:00 PM
From: jeremy smith	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 22640

thread: It's STILL not over, girls, I am afraid to say - but I do think we are getting close. Barring a rout in China/Hong-Kong, then Brazil WILL hold. To be honest, there IS an evident risk now of an attack against the real, but the bet is they will hold. Taking that as an assumption, then I would say we are looking at a further 10% downside before a significant rally starts. "Significant" meaning back towards $90. It is going to be a long long time before this puppy is trading back at 125 (post sell-off levels). Key here lies not in the equity markets, but in the debt. Until there is any meaningful recovery in debt prices (and thus a drop in implied yields/interest rates) there simply cannot be any sustainable recovery in the region's equity markets. Why would anyone buy a mexican equity when they can buy a 1 year Treasury bill paying 30%? why would they buy a Brazilian one, and risk a possible currency devaluation, when they can buy a 1 year Treasury bill yielding almost 20% which is DOLLAR PROTECTED??? answer: they won't ! But, as I started off by saying, I do think we are near bounce-point. I can easily envisage a situation where we gap-down tomorrow at the open, and then whip around and actually close higher. Anyway - here's hoping....... !