Ok2Launch, the chip delay has been discussed on the thread before.
First, BRCM's announcement of the delay:
Broadcom Reports Chip Delay
Irvine, Calif.. -- Key silicon supplier Broadcom Corp. alerted cable modem manufacturers this week that Broadcom will stop shipping its 3220-B chip, which had been devised to fix problems and add functions to its 3220-A chip.
The Broadcom 3220 series handles "media access control" tasks in cable modems, and is a critical data component.
Broadcom instead will move to an integrated chip, cable modem manufacturers said. The development could mean "serious delays" in cable modem availability, one senior MSO executive complained.
Only one cable modem vendor will likely not be affected by Broadcom's chip change: 3Com Corp., which developed its own version of the 3220 "media access control" series.
Broadcom officials were quick to point out that no final decision has been made to leapfrog the 3220B in favor of an integrated chip, and said that cable modem manufacturers essentially jumped to that conclusion incorrectly. "We're gathering information about whether or not to do that, is all," said Henry Nicholas, chief executive officer of Broadcom. He said that since the 3220B would be ready within a month of the fully integrated chip, it may make sense to simply forego the 3220B and instead pack its features into the newer chip. - 7/2/98
Even more reported a few days later, but note BRCM's response:
DOCSIS Modems May Face Delays
By FRED DAWSON & LESLIE ELLIS
Much-touted standards-based cable modems, expected to be in stores by the holidays, may face delays into the first quarter of next year.
While leading MSOs have long made it clear that they want the new modems in time to begin rollouts this fall, many have also raised the bar on the performance levels that they expect from the gear.
Those expectations led to the development of new iterations of the cable-data standard and to a split in demand between those that want something now and those that want something better, later.
The upshot: Many vendors don't see the demand that they were expecting as they get closer to production.
"I can anticipate that Bay [Networks Inc.] will ship in excess of 200,000 [proprietary] modems in '99," said Karl May, vice president and general manager of broadband technology at Bay, a leading supplier of cable modems that is set to be acquired by Nortel.
But while the company is committed to begin shipping standards-compliant modems by September in the thousands of units, "It's hard to figure out where" they'll be shipped, May added.
"From the perspective of industry expectations, demand is shaping up to be weaker than expected at this point in time," agreed Dick Day, vice president and general manager of the marketing division within Motorola Inc.'s multimedia group. "At Motorola, our feeling was and remains that the first quarter [of 1999] will be the time frame when the transition to DOCSIS begins."
DOCSIS -- for Data Over Cable Service/Interoperability Specification -- is the new name for the cable-modem standard formerly known as MCNS (Multimedia Cable Network System).
Indeed, despite what sources described as large-volume orders in the making from Tele-Communications Inc. and Rogers Cablesystems Inc., the demand side of the picture is hazy.
Much is at stake over the next few months. Competitively, the telephone industry is rushing to drive its alternative high-speed-data platform, asymmetrical digital subscriber line, into retail distribution, with support from the same computer interests that cable claims as partners.
"If we wait too long and telcos start deploying ADSL everywhere, we'll be hurting," said Jorge Salinger, senior director for digital-service networks at Adelphia Cable Communications.
At least one analyst noted that the MSOs' publicly stated intentions are often "spinnable."
TCI has said that it wants to offer data services to 2.5 million customers by year-end; MediaOne, which is now partnered with Time Warner Cable in the high-speed Road Runner venture, is reviewing responses to a recently issued request for proposals in hopes of deploying DOCSIS modems.
But a look behind the surface optimism isn't as rosy. Data strategists at Time Warner, for example, don't plan to make a move toward ordering DOCSIS modems until the products are better-defined and tested.
Time Warner -- with more systems offering data services than anyone -- will jump into the DOCSIS stream when the time is right, and it is not prepared to say when that will be, said Mario Vecchi, chief technical officer of Road Runner, in comments relayed by spokeswoman Sandy Colony.
"We're just not ready to talk about our plans in any detail," Colony added.
The other MSO half of Road Runner said much the same thing.
"We'll have to wait and see until we get through the RFP process to determine what the timing and other details will be," said Tom Cullen, vice president of Internet services at MediaOne and chairman of the recently formed Cable Broadband Forum.
Cullen said MediaOne could begin deploying standardized modems "by the end of this year." He emphasized, "We at MediaOne are adamant about moving forward."
The companies that are hungriest to get their hands on the new modems are those with recently upgraded markets where conditions are ripe for launching high-speed-data services.
Adelphia, for example, would love to move forward with DOCSIS-headend deployments this fall, but that doesn't seem likely at this point, Salinger said.
"The analogy that I use is that we're flying this plane that's getting more and more weight added onto it as we get ever more systems to the point where they're ready to launch two-way data services," Salinger said. "We're at the point where we can't wait any longer."
Right now, it looks like the safe bet for Adelphia is the proprietary system supplied by Com21 Inc., Salinger said.
"We don't think that MCNS modems will be available in sufficient quantities and sufficiently tested for mass deployment until sometime in the first quarter," he said.
While it's likely that some vendors will have product available this fall -- with most of them using chips from Broadcom Corp. that represent an early implementation of the DOCSIS standard -- the situation is hard to read. Currently, no vendors have signaled that they're ready to go through the standards-certification process at Cable Television Laboratories Inc.
Certification is "in the hands of the vendors," said Rouzbeh Yassini, executive consultant to the CableLabs DOCSIS project.
Yassini said vendors hoping to gain certification by late August have until "noon on July 20" to submit their intentions to the DOCSIS-certification team. Vendors that don't apply by then will have additional opportunities every month for the rest of the year.
"To be honest, they're working at it, but the quality has to be there and the stability has to be there," Yassini said. "If I had to guess, we're within a 60-day window of people coming" to get certified.
While there should be enough DOCSIS 1.0-version chips from Broadcom to spur a quick ramp-up to modem production, DOCSIS-complaint headend gear is another matter.
"We're still waiting for [headend] chip sets," said Andrew Audet, business director for data products at Motorola, adding that demand for the company's proprietary system "has gone crazy over the last couple of months."
Adding to the uncertainties has been "feature creep." Vendors, eager to satisfy MSO desires, are continually adding features to their proprietary systems that raise the bar on what the market expects from the DOCSIS modems. That makes it hard for MSOs to know when to take the plunge.
"I've been concerned when I hear rumors that several of our customers are pushing off the implementation of [DOCSIS] devices until we achieve third- or fourth-generation maturation of the specifications," May said.
New uncertainty was injected into the extensions picture over the past two weeks, when Broadcom told its customers that a planned chip -- the 3220B, which includes techniques to let operators differentiate classes of service -- will not ship.
The reason why, Broadcom officials said, is because production schedules for an integrated chip -- the 3300, which includes the features of the 3220B -- had been accelerated to within one month of the planned ship date for the 3220B.
Cable-modem vendors took the news from Broadcom as an edict that clouded the timing question.
Broadcom officials insisted last week that the demise of the 3220B was "just a suggestion," and that they were "trying to gauge reaction" from the cable-modem-vendor community.
"We think that what's best for the industry is to bring the next-generation [integrated] chip out as soon as possible, which will take significant costs out of the subscriber unit" -- on the order of 25 percent to 30 percent, which could drop the price of a $250 modem to $175 -- Broadcom CEO Henry Nicholas said.
Operators said the timing is a minor issue because no matter when they deploy DOCSIS modems, there will be strong consumer demand for them.
Note the last sentence above. My comment regarding Europe was that they are in the process of committing to one standard, DOCSIS. In the long-term, that is excellent news for BRCM notwithstanding the delay.
BTW, once again, it's nice to see Nicholas exercising leadership, basically telling the cable industry "This is the chip you need".
Also, for research and disclosure purposes, the above two articles were from the Multichannel web site.
Regards,
Pat |
