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Strategies & Market Trends : Roger's 1998 Short Picks -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Don Westermeyer who wrote (13248)	8/28/1998 7:25:00 PM
From: ItsAllCyclical	Respond to of 18691

Don, agree 100%. Abbey is flat out of her mind. We have yet to see fall tax selling. After this pullback it'll be brutal. Yes, there are incredible values in the small caps. MRVC is now trading $1 above book. The oil drillers no matter what the outlook have been beaten silly. But, I still think we're going down a lot further. I'd say we'll test 7,200 or 6,400 before the end of the year with lots of volatility. That doesn't mean that's where we'll end the year though. Next support level for the market is around 7600.

To: Don Westermeyer who wrote (13248)	8/28/1998 7:32:00 PM
From: craig crawford	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 18691

>> Abbey C. is screaming the market is now 10% undervalued. << I have never her seen her scream. I have always heard her calmly and rationally lay out her case. >> She says the fall is due to a shift in sentiment - not valuation. << That's good for the bears. Bad sentiment is what makes markets crash, not overvaluation.

To: Don Westermeyer who wrote (13248)	8/28/1998 11:53:00 PM
From: Oeconomicus	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 18691

Don, on the point about 7-10% undervaluation, did she give any basis for this calculation or just through it out there as her opinion without supporting arguments? The reason I find this interesting is that, if you figure the Dow was probably around 8100 or so when her statement came out today, 7-10% would put her "fair value" at 8670 to 8910. I seem to recall comments on Monday or Tuesday from her that her year end target is 9300 on the Dow (of course, at 9300, she surely had a higher target). Seems that she is gradually lowering her targets - to levels significantly below where she was proclaiming that all was well with the bull market - yet still not admitting that anything has changed other than "sentiment". Does she really still think corporate earnings will rebound in the second half with further boom times next year? Does she really believe that the US is immune to the drag of recessions in much of the rest of the world? Did she forget one of the first things a serious student of the markets and economics learns - that markets lead the economy, not the other way around? Or does she just think the sheeple will buy just because she throws out some statement about the market being undervalued? Abby will go down with the ship. JMO, Bob