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Strategies & Market Trends : LastShadow's Position Trading -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Ken Adams who wrote (59)	8/28/1998 9:58:00 PM
From: LastShadow	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 43080

Responses No problem Ken, I was agreeing with you. Tobaccoman If you know of stocks that went up or held on lower volume, post them please. However, if we are talking abut stocks less than $5 or less than 100k average shares, then its a small cap issue, and those tend to move less in dumping markets in general I haven't found a coorelation between this dump and October's yet, but that doesn't mean there isnt one. Sue Slaine asked me that the other day and I am still working on it. As for short squeezes, I did successfully pattern the net a couple of weeks ago with all the data I had on KTEL to make a few bucks, and posted that to the Gems thread in advance. However, that was stock specific, and relied less on short interest and more on chart compression and reversal signal. In general I have found that reversal signals with respect to basic trendlines are much more reliable than monitoring short interest. However, there are others who rely on that data, so I will ask them to post on it. I am still looking at the trade and volume data, and for the stocks that I posted yesterday I see fewer huge block sells than in October and more panic selling in trades under 10k shares. I didn't see the late afternoon accumulation I was hoping to today, though... As for the IPO'S, I tend to wait a couple of months for the newness to wear off, and look for reversals. I'm not a good source for opinion on that one, although if I was backing the ticker, I sure would do everything I could to hype, er, 'influence' it. lastshadow

To: Ken Adams who wrote (59)	8/29/1998 9:49:00 AM
From: Ken Adams	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 43080

All... How low is low? I keep tabs on the number of NYSE issues that trade above their 200 day SMA. For the nearly 7 years of history I have on this indicator, Thursday and Friday saw it fall to its lowest level ever. Only 19% of NYSE stocks now trade above the 200d SMA. That means 81% of all stocks are below the average. However, it also may mean the end is in sight for this bear market. In March of 1993, the number above the 200d average was 78%. This began to shrink from that point and fell steadily into late 1994 where it bottomed out at 20%. In early October, 1997 this number reached a record high of 85% and began to fall. It has been an up and down trail since that high, but the overall trend has been down, in spite of rising DJIA prices. Fewer stocks in rising patterns overall, while the blue chips made new highs. The NYSE advance decline line hit its peak on April 9 of this year, trailing the "Over Moving Average" indicator by about 6 months. Cyclically, this bear could last another month, but it's probably time to start watching for some buying opportunities. Comments welcome, Ken