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Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: jef saunders who wrote (25567)	8/29/1998 1:05:00 AM
From: Skipperr	Respond to of 94695

Jef - Excuse me, but I don't. " read his posts the last month and followed his advice". I think for myself! I've been burned too many times doing something like that! You go ahead and follow your own advice, "don't act until bobby tells you..." Good luck, Buddy, Skipperr

To: jef saunders who wrote (25567)	9/2/1998 10:07:00 PM
From: Bull RidaH	Read Replies (5) \| Respond to of 94695

Jef, Yes... Glad to say I fired the canon today on puts, not at the peak, but close enough. Still plenty in reserve if it gives us another chance, which I think could very well happen. Your breakdown of the likliehood of 1020/1050/1100 being met is very realistic I.M.O. On the wave count, I have us still in the big A, which I anticipate us being in until mid next year. We're still just in the 1st wave down of A. Within 1 of A, we started 3 of 1 of A from last Tuesday's peak (8/25) at 1105. We completed 1 of 3 of 1 of A at the low yesterday (9/1) and began wave 2 of 3 of 1 of A. Within wave 2 of 3 of 1 of A, I believe we just completed a of 2 at today's high. We are currently in the b of 2 downdraft, and should have a c of 2 rally into Friday, that could revisit Wednesday's highs, if not exceed them. BEAR in mind that another interpretation would have wave 2 of 3 of 1 of A completing today, and it IS possible, but I don't think it's as likely because after a straight down move, several days typcially have to pass before the move can resume due to oversoldness and Put premiums getting out of hand. The important point is what comes after this c of 2 is finished, and that is 3 of 3 of 1 of A. That will be the down wave that rivals the October 24th-October 29th period in 1929 in immmensity of destructive force. If it turns into an all out plunge, and breaks 885/6800, I sincerely believe we will see it complete a move to the July 96 lows in short order (600/4800), finally finding support there. It will have slightly exceeded the 47% decline from peak to bottom of the 1st wave of A in 1929, but then again, this speculative frenzy and overvaluation exceeded that of the 20's as well. With S&P 500 companies experiencing a reduction in estimates for the next years earnings, It's safe to say that something around $45 would be acceptable, and at 600, the P/E would be brought down to a more modest 13 or so. That's not undervalued at all, considering that a worldwide recession and Y2K issues may lead to continued earnings shrinkage over the next few years. But of course, the Fed will lower rates when we hit 600, the Republicans will win the fall elections, and the market will rally 50% back up to 900 by year end, giving many false hope, once again. But that will simply be the wave 2 of A 50% retracement rally, and what should follow from there is a steady progression downward much like that of the early 30's. By the mid to late part of '99, a visit to the crash lows of '87 or lower should not and would not surprise students of market history with an open mind. So, if you want to relax next year and enjoy it all, just go long after the upcoming crash. When the rally approaches 50%, sell out, and take all the money, and put it in BearX or Rydex Ursa, and let their short sales and put plays make you very wealthy. Best Wishes for you and yours future, David