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Technology Stocks : Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Bill Harmond who wrote (15167)	8/29/1998 2:07:00 PM
From: dclapp	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 164684

CAUTION.long post! Well, I've lurking and learning lately. In particular, I've learned a lot from Craig Crawford, Rob S. and William Harmond. Thanks, guys. However you, Rob, seem to be too smart a guy to indulge in off-the-wall/over-the-top jeering. Stock price aside, Amazon is a great company. Be glad for the "other side" or you wouldn't have a market to play with. <g> As I mentioned in an earlier post, I cashed out of Amazon on my recent long buy at 127+. Did well, as I had the other times I've been long on Amazon over the last year. But it seems the time has come to "learn to short," and I'd appreciate comments and advice from the board. (And let's hope I don't become another <wrongway> as I try my hand! :-) Right now, I'm about 60% cash. Sold my Yahoo, Amazon, Dell (all for very nice profits) wcom and a few other stocks. I'm keeping my "beat-up semi's" and a few other stocks that I want to average on, if the market ever turns up - sucker rallies aside. I'm not keen on taking losses; I'd rather suffer "dead money" in a few cases. My portfolio is in the high six figures. I've hedged it a bit with Dow DJX options (Oct 80's and 76's) that I bought a few weeks ago for good prices. Those were my first option purchases, by the way; I don't feel in the least qualified to play options, despite what I've learned from various books on options and following this and other boards. But I do, again, think it's time to short; and I'm trying to make an educated guess on the best stocks to short. If I follow the bear reasoning on this board, Amazon is obviously a candidate. But is it the best candidate? Given that "high PE/overvalued/speculative" (choose your term.) stocks are the first to get taken down in a down market, which will go down the most and the quickest? Is it Amazon? It does seem like the days of the short squeeze (oh how I loved them!) are over for Amazon - but the short interest is still high, I'd guess, which will cushion the fall, or at least slow it, as sellers cover for profit. Based on Rob's reasoning, which I agree with, this may mean a successive "scalloped" decline, with price rising at the end of the day, as sellers take profits. (Because most won't follow Rob's reasonable tactic of "selling at the close.) Or will we see a greater percent decrease in the 2nd and 3rd tier companies in this sector? Lycos, Excite, etc. etc. That makes sense to me. Think what you will of Yahoo/Amazon.they are sector leaders. Even if Amazon/Yahoo decline massively, they should decline <<less>> than the "next guys back." Agree? Disagree? Finally, on a more general note, what's your feeling on other good "short candidates" in what might be a downward trending market? Super high PE stocks like wcom, aol, qwst? Others? Companies with lots of international exposure that have held up reasonable well "so far"? If so.which? Again, sorry about the long post. Look forward to any comments and thanks for all the good (and bad!) reading over the past few weeks. Good fortune to all.

To: Bill Harmond who wrote (15167)	8/29/1998 2:26:00 PM
From: IceShark	Respond to of 164684

market panic William, You ain't seen 'nutting yet, if you think this is a panic. The panic starts when the revised DJIA stops are hit and the newbies figure out that mutual funds can go down, too. That might happen when this month's statements are pondered over. Sure they can read the closing prices in the paper and do the calculations, but that change in NAV in black and white will really bring it home. This could be quite scary. Should this happen, which seems quite possible, AMZN will become a media poster child for how wacky things got and it will be a broken stock for some time to come. You do raise an interesting question regarding short interest and the support it will provide. I would like to know how strong the hands are holding short positions and what the original positions started out at. They could be quite strong and the original sale price quite low thereby giving AMZN little support should it collapse. I remember IOM (IOMG) and the Bear Stearns guy that shorted somewhere in the pre-split $20s and rode it up to $66 or whatever. I believe they held and rode it all the way back down. I also know a few stubborn folks that rode MU from the $30's to $60 and back down to $20. So, trying to guess short covering support in volitile rockets can be tough indeed. I think it is wise you switched to cash. Regards, IS

To: Bill Harmond who wrote (15167)	8/29/1998 2:29:00 PM
From: OtherChap	Respond to of 164684

>You shorts have been wrong about Amazon. no, we were right, just a little bit early. but you and I both know this stock is going to be trading below 50 within the next few weeks. I've even got some really out of the money puts very cheaply just in case it collapses farther than even I think. monday will be interesting. most likely there will be a dead cat bounce in everything, including amzn yhoo xcit, etc.. but people will sell into any strength and by mid-day we'll be below 100 for amzn and probably down 200 dow points. folks, this is almost as good as printing money! just buy oct 110 puts and watch the cash roll in..

To: Bill Harmond who wrote (15167)	8/29/1998 3:09:00 PM
From: zax	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 164684

You have been wrong about Amazon the company, and don't confuse this price decline with that. Nothing has changed. All the forces coming together to make Internet commerce a reality, and Amazon's leadership position are still intact. Don't over-stay your short position because, from the latest short statistics, you have plenty of company (don't let the door hit...) when time comes to cover. Don't worry, Bill. I'll be sure to cover a little above $5 so as to limit your losses. Look to sell off and save what you've got left on the temporary dead cat bounce to $10 soon thereafter. AMZN is a loser with no name brand, no special service or technology, no barriers towards entry to its market, huge and mounting losses, and more experienced, established and well known competitiors. Despite whatever high hopes you place here, this stock is a shorters wet dream. :)

To: Bill Harmond who wrote (15167)	8/29/1998 4:55:00 PM
From: Glenn D. Rudolph	Respond to of 164684

But remember: You have been wrong about Amazon the company, and don't confuse this price decline with that. Nothing has changed. All the forces coming together to make Internet commerce a reality, and Amazon's leadership position are still intact. William, I cannot argue with your prdiction of the market action with AMZN. Your are good and I willingly admit it. I am still of the feeling that Amazon is doomed to failure due to a fundamental point of view. This is something we could kick around forever and never agree until the verdict is truly in. I do agree that the change in direction is more of a market general situation and I doubt the investing public has changed their minds on the future of Amazon. I was clearly wrong being short at the point I was short and not protecting capital as well as I should. I do want to be on this thread when Amazon's busines plan is a proven failure just so I feel better about my FA on the company. Also, I am not disagreeing that e-commerce will be a large business. It will I do believe Amazon is does not have the savey to turn a profit in e-commerce or any retail environment. Time will tell. I no longer am stubborn enough not to go long Amazon when it appears to be moving up. I will try to capture gains in either direction if I can properly predict moves. I have spend hours (likely weeks) of time trying to convince many people of the imminent failure of the Amazon business plan. I suppose those FA comments I made also helped me to see the larger picture. Finally, there are excellent people on this thread that seem to be able to predict stock movements very well. Most as a matter of fact. It is impressive and I learned a lot here. I hope to be proven correct regarding the furture of Amazon just for my self confidence and of course, I hope to gain back my losses. The only person on this thread that really angered me was jawd and it is quite possible I did not listen well. Fortunatly, he and I were able to overcome that and move on in place of flaming. Good luck to all of us in the market. Glenn