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To: Johnny Canuck who wrote (17684)	8/29/1998 6:34:00 PM
From: Lachesis Atropos	Respond to of 69124

Thanks for the insightful response Harry! I am leaning towards point 5 (just to be cautious): If you believe in window dressing we potentially have not seen the real damage yet. Most fund managers are away on vacation. We won't see their hand till after labour day. September is a month for end of quarter window dressing so that will effect their moves next month. If they decide it is time to get out of the market altogether we will see a massive drop. They might just re-position into defensive blue chip stocks and biotechs. It will be hard to tell their mood. I will still keeping my cash for trading invested; however on a more serious note, my 401k did not come to my attention until recently. The plan my company has is very flexible allowing me transfer money in and out of funds by simply pressing buttons on a phone---cool. I am going to start paying attention to these. Your opinions are highly regarded! Lachesis

To: Johnny Canuck who wrote (17684)	8/30/1998 3:19:00 PM
From: Tom Trader	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 69124

Great post, Harry!! I think much hinges on whether there has been a shift in the psychology of the average investor and that remains to be seen. My sense is that it has shifted and if the next rally is lack-lustre and/or there is a pronounced sell-off after the next rally, I think that it will confirm the end of this bull. A former colleague of mine, from my corporate days, who chats with me often about the markets was on the phone with me on Friday--and his tone had changed. He has invested his, not inconsiderable, funds in the market-- a combination of mutual funds and individual stocks--quite a bit in the past two years. He knows that I exited the market, for the most part, almost a year ago--and looked askance on my decision to do so at the time. He shared with me that he was deeply in the hole at this point. Just about everything that he owned, many of them, quality companies, were well off their highs -- and he was looking for the next decent rally to bail out of some of his positions. Now he is the much heralded long term investor--not given to impulsive actions--but when he tells me that he is looking to bail, it does make me wonder how many others there are of the same ilk. Let's face it, investor psychology is the key--on a fundamental basis we are over-valued. I read some where that Abby C had said last week that we are now 5%+ under-valued. And as M Burke pointed out, she sure was not screaming out when the indices were at their peaks that we were 5%+ over-valued -- so there is a built in bias on the part of the brokerages etc to keep this thing afloat. So we hear the spin-meisters doing their thing. I suspect that we will rally next week--but given that this is the conventional wisdom, who knows! In any event, if we have an anemic rally look for the next down-leg to begin. I know that you are in Canada--and that the currency there has been losing value in relation to the dollar. Are there cracks appearing in the economy? My sister, who lives in New Zealand, was telling me that NZ is now in a recession--given that they do a lot of trade with countries in the Pacific Rim that is not altogether surprising. Apparently the currency there has lost about 30% of its value in relation to the dollar. My regards

To: Johnny Canuck who wrote (17684)	8/30/1998 11:03:00 PM
From: Suresh	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 69124

Hi Harry, I found this particularly interesting... Printing more money will create inflation and a devaluation of the US dollar. I don't think anyone is using that policy in the new economy of the 90's. what do you mean by more ? I would assume it means more than the demand. Everything is just supply and demand constrained since it is no longer bound to any hard assets (as far as I can find). So, if there is huge demand for US currency it is okay to keep increasing the supply. Logically wouldn't you think that if they don't keep up the supply with increased demand it will create even more pressure on world currencies ? -Suresh

To: Johnny Canuck who wrote (17684)	8/30/1998 11:30:00 PM
From: Lachesis Atropos	Respond to of 69124

Random musings on mass portfolio shock, a contributing factor to the DOWS volatility? Due to the popularity of the Motley Fool, I think that if their investment strategy took a big hit, the Fool portfolio (YDT 31.77%), fool.com, panic would heighten. Note the Fool 4 portfolio has already declined lower than the S&P. I have no axe to grind with the fool; however, since it does advocate a collective portfolio, and if one believes the market is an intelligent system, it is just a matter of time before for the market figures out the fool (no pun intended). Mass Portfolio Shock may be a new investment term that the Internet has given us. Lachesis

To: Johnny Canuck who wrote (17684)	9/2/1998 4:00:00 AM
From: Johnny Canuck	Respond to of 69124

Wednesday, September 2, 1998 Analysts say too early to judge Nortel, Bay deal By KEITH DAMSELL Technology Reporter The Financial Post Northern Telecom Ltd. had better keep the champagne on ice. The phone equipment giant yesterday celebrated the completion of its US$6.3-billion acquisition of Bay Networks Inc. with employees, but analysts warned that a slew of challenges remain. "Nortel has got several balls in the air now," said Albert Daoust, director of special projects for Toronto's Evans Research Corp. "The big question is are they going to drop one?" In June, Brampton, Ont.-based Nortel made a big move into the data networking market when it acquired Bay Networks of Santa Clara, Calif., for 134 million shares. Nortel chief executive John Roth and David House, Bay chief executive and newly appointed Nortel president, provided the first details of the combined company yesterday. The new Nortel will employ 80,000 with operations spread across North America. Boston will be home to a new division that will develop and market carrier packet networks, an Internet technology that allows data to be sliced, bundled and channeled through a network to a remote location. The merged company expects sales to grow by at least 20% next year. In 1997, Bay and Nortel reported combined revenue of about US$18 billion. Analysts were pleased with the rapid closing of the deal -- it took only 75 days -- but remain cautious. Investors have been less than enthusiastic, too. Since the deal was reported June 15, Nortel shares (NTL/TSE) have slumped from $93.10 to $79.75 at yesterday's close, an increase of $4.50 on the day. The share slide has shaved about US$2.8 billion off the value of the deal. Successfully merging bureaucratic and straight-laced Nortel with entrepreneurial, laid-back Bay is the most common concern of analysts. Roth and House have signalled they can work together, but it is unclear how key staff will co-operate. "These are two very different organizations and putting it all together without building resentment will be tough," said one Toronto telecommunications analyst. Cross-selling high-tech products presents a second set of challenges. Nortel's telephone equipment sales team must learn to market data equipment while Bay's staff must bone up on telephone supplies. "We all know that [voice and data] technology are converging but are the buyers?" asked Duncan Stewart, manager of the Canadian Navigator Technology Fund. As Nortel expands its product portfolio, its list of competitors grows too. The merged company will be taking on a who's who of telecommunications and data networking players, including such heavyweights as Cisco Systems Inc., Lucent Technologies Inc. and Newbridge Networks Corp. "They don't have one competitor in one industry anymore," said Daoust. "It's very hard to be a good [telephone carrier] server company and a good data networking company." ****************************