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Strategies & Market Trends : Systems, Strategies and Resources for Trading Futures -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Patrick Slevin who wrote (2801)	8/29/1998 10:54:00 PM
From: j g cordes	Respond to of 44573

Hi Patrick, nice to hear from you. You're right in that most things are "priced in" the market. Most things normally, but not including uncertainty and worry on a global scale which really has a lot of people spooked as you know. You're right, I don't trade a particular news item nor do you, but I love global speculating on cause and effects. One could easily trade anything by chart action without even knowing what the heck was behind it, but that's like eating food with your tongue cut out. The OEX has formed a head and shoulders as I suggested it might a month ago.. small guru favors eh. Did I take full advantage of it? Not at all. Nor can I play golf in a semi-conscious zen state where there's only the ball, the moment of release, and the hole being one. I think we will have to drop Fed rates to accomodate a lower dollar which I'm sure the Japanese and Germans want, to help them ease the pains they're suffering from Asia and Russia. This will also help stabilize commodity prices.. although there's little to be done to artificially prop up commodities through price controls which never work. Oddly, financial systems now find themselves intimately tied to commodity export countries_ joined at the hip so to speak. As lower prices have seriously stressed repayment possibilities, the loaning countries (Japan, Germany, France, the US to a lesser extent etc..) can only hope that commodities gain enough in price to make repayment possible... but not too much to hurt. For example the price of oil was the peg at which Russian loans were calculated. Once they dropped below the peg repayment slipped and they had to ship more oil to make up for the difference which in turn dropped the price by flooding world markets.. this same scenario is being played out over the world. I wonder if the pain suffered by the international banks isn't more than made up for in lowered oil, grain, metals and low inflation the rest of us enjoy. Jim