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Technology Stocks : Lucent Technologies (LU) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Sonki who wrote (3839)	8/30/1998 12:49:00 PM
From: Anonymous	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 21876

According to the history of the stock market, things always get better...sometimes after a drop it only takes a week, however, if you look at the market from about 1965 up until sometime in the early 80's, things were FLAT throughout that period. The DOW Industrials averaged about 875 during that almost 20 year period. Sure - there were fluctuations, however, the swings during that period were about 200 points, i.e., from lows around 800 to highs around 1000. From the beginning of 1973 when the DOW was about 1050 till the end of 1974 when it hit the bottom of the cycle at roughly 575 it went down continuously, with the most severe downslide from the middle of the 3rd quarter of 1974 (summer as it is now) until the end of 1974 when it finally turned up. It took from the beginning of 1975 until the end of the 1st quarter of 1976 to reach 1050 again. History shows that all recoveries don't happen overnight. I think that this market will continue sliding. Sure, maybe on Monday there will be a bounce back, however, over time the trend will be down. In about two or three weeks when companies start reporting 1998 3rd quarter earnings and they keep missing the street benchmarks, that bad news will start a trend to sell off companies that haven't yet reported. When is LUCENT slated to report? -- around October 20 or 21. Bad results by other companies prior to that date could plant the seed. And remember LUCENT's report back on 7/22/98 when they beat the STREET by 5 cents, down it went. The smart money and those privy to the real whisper results had pushed the stock up from 94 7/8 on Friday, July 17, and over the weekend to 102 1/8 by Tuesday, July 21 (actually hitting the all time high of 108 1/2 that day)so that when Wednesday, July 22 came around and LUCENT made their official announcement, the stock was already being sold off the day before after hours by the privileged ones. Do you think that because LUCENT will be free to do what it wants concerning acquisitions after September 30, will be a reason to buy at this time on all these so-called dips that we've been experiencing in the last couple of days? THAT QUESTION FOR ANYBODY WHO WANTS TO TAKE A STAB AT IT. I'm looking for real good sound reasoning...not just poker playing reasons to lay down a bet. I don't care to hear about all the little acquisitions that this giant company might make...don't tell me what CISCO might do or not do...I'm talking about the psychological factors that are driving this pyramid scheme of a market at the moment. Everytime the world passes gas at this stage of the game it is a reason for someone to take a "flight to quality." The big money is spending their entire days with their fingers on the hair trigger. Where is LUCENT and this market going from here into about the next half of 1999 and maybe through to the year 2000? Am awaiting your comments - ANONYMOUS