Mr. Anonymous,
Noone can answer your question. But things I do know are
1) Russia do not have much business with the rest of the world in the past, and
in the past 10 years Russia is a more a burden to the rest of the world . What will it matter if you cut off the cancers from your body ?
2) Asia had gone through its worst in the past one and a half years, and things will not getting any worse, it only means better.
3) Hong Kong is fighting with oversea fund managers who are trying to knock down Hong Kong's stock market , and destroying its economy. The reserved fund is
more than 30 billion US dollars for that war, and more can be available if needed.
Solos may lose big time this time.
4) Money from 401k, oversea , is continuing flowing into the US market.
5) In the middle East countries, they are still selling oils, and no problem in its economy.
6) China had announced it will hold up its currency, and I bet it will keep its promise.
7) Europe is continuing to be strong.
8) Allen Grrenspan may think about cut rate in the next couple of months.
Rate is too high comparing to the current inflation rate ( deflation).The problem in
the economy is not inflation , but deflation. Deflation will kill every company, and
everybody.If the more companies sell, the more they lose, companies will lay off
all of their employee and close their doors. Pretty soon, only Mr. Greenspan will
have a job.
9) The DOW contains only 30 some stocks, and the Nasdaq only some 50 stocks, but
if you look at the broader pictures, you will see most of the small to medium stocks had already gone through a bear market since last October.
AMD from 40 to $15, LSI from $47 to $14, VLSI from $30 to $13, AMAT from $50 to $28 , PSFT from $58 to $34, SEG from $50 to $23, Qntm from $37 to $16,
WDC from $45 to $12 ....etc, you name it, they are now pretty much hit the bottom.
As to the big cap, they will continue to be the heaven of investors, and hold pretty well. The world money needs a place to go, the 401k, the hot money, and the top choice is the US big cap stocks with good quality and fundamentals.
So, since last OCT, there are actually two market, one is the small and medium cap market, which went through a serious correction and it is now pretty much hit the bottom, and the big cap market which held pretty well and continue hit all time high.
As to the history of the market, well, you can not compare today's market with the market of 30 years ago. 30 years ago, we do not have overseas money to invest in the US stock market, and we do not have 401k money pool ...etc, and many things are different if you compare today with yesterday.
As to where the stock market will go, well it is everyone's guess , tell you the
truth , I do not know , but optimistic. |
