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Pastimes : The Justa & Lars Honors Bob Brinker Investment Club -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Justa Werkenstiff who wrote (468)	8/30/1998 1:09:00 AM
From: DD™	Respond to of 15132

Very fine summarization. Thanks (EOM). DD

To: Justa Werkenstiff who wrote (468)	8/30/1998 2:17:00 AM
From: Investor2	Respond to of 15132

Excellent summary. Thanks very much. I2

To: Justa Werkenstiff who wrote (468)	8/30/1998 3:23:00 AM
From: marc ultra	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 15132

re":situation begs for clarification." I guess the situation is we are considerably beyond the 10% correction Bob was looking for due in his and a lot of other's view that things have been exacerbated by world events beyond what would be expected by fundamentals as indicated by the timing model. Since things have deteriorated beyond what he was predicting and his model obviously sees nothing that would suggest we should be in or entering a bear market I'm not sure what he could say at this point other than as far as he can tell we are still in a bull market and in his off presidential election year that should produce a great buying opportunity. After calling an all out buy under 8650 it would be a little silly to say now this should be a really really really good buy. Yes it is disturbing that some of these great buying opportunities in the past he talked about came after more severe downturns and in truth we can't say for sure where the hell we are exactly in terms of the bottom. It would be interesting to know if he was stepping up to the plate again Monday morning if we get a weak opening but I think we face a tough decision whether to e.g. dump some fixed income money into equities in a hope to faster make up some of the big losses faced recently or play this from a more defensive posture. I was wondering whether to dump Global Communications and stick the money elsewhere. While this will generate a capital gain I expect this to have a gargantuan capital gains distribution at the end of the year and it may not be the greatest place to be in the near term Marc

To: Justa Werkenstiff who wrote (468)	8/30/1998 9:22:00 AM
From: Bearcatbob	Respond to of 15132

Thread, The fifth cause of a Bear market was identified as overvaluation. In this market one can say that if earnings fall then we would have severe over valuation. I think that this point should not be glossed over. Bob stated that the market was now around a PE of 20. If there is no growth in earnings and even declines in earnings - then I submit we would have severe overvaluation and the potential for a bear market in his own terminology. Watch the latin American markets for a case of the Asia Contagion. Bob

To: Justa Werkenstiff who wrote (468)	8/30/1998 10:04:00 AM
From: Allan Harris	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 15132

Another take on Saturday's show: (1) "Mid-term off presidential year correction" Brinker joins Robert Prechter and Peter Eliades in using Cycles to analyze and time the market. What is this if not the simple observation of a four year stock market cyclic low? (2) "International calamity": International geopolitical events can overwhelm financial markets, at least temporarily. Unforeseen international calamities can render all technical and fundamental timing models mute and create chaos and confusion where IRA's and electronic trading once reigned supreme. (3) "Risk": Those that do best in the market are those that are willing to challenge the risk inherent in times of market uncertainty. (4) "Intangibles": As has been pointed out already by others, Brinker was less enthusiastic about this "buying opportunity" then he was on January 12, and even less enthusiastic then he was just last weekend, prior to everything being marked down 5%. Allan

To: Justa Werkenstiff who wrote (468)	8/30/1998 2:29:00 PM
From: stock bull	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 15132

Justa, re:<<When one considers that Brinker keeps citing this event as a "major" midterm, off-presidential year event and notes that many of these events have far exceeded a 20% loss by a longshot, the program's shortcoming in this regard becomes even more apparent and downright disturbing. This situation begs for clarification.>> First, I must agree with your conclusion. Second, what's so "special" about an "off-presidential year" and the stock market? Further, how do you relate the "international events" to the "off-presidential year". I just don't get it...isn't Bob talking about apples and oranges? This is the first time that I can ever recall hearing Bob and getting the feeling that he is very uncertain about the current and future state of the markets. As most on this thread, I have been a subscriber to the Marketimer for a number of years, and have always relied on Bob's ability to time the market, and when the time came, expected to receive his letter with the sell recommendation. Or, read the sell recommendation in the newsletter. Since current events have shaken my confidence in Bob's timing model, added to all the negative events in the world's economies, and the recent performance of our markets, I think we are all now confronted with the question as to what we do next. As I see it, the situation is one of risk vs. reward. Since many of us have nice profits in our portfolios, why should we risk losing these profits? I'm quickly coming to the point of believing that the wise thing to do is get out of the markets, go to money market funds and collect 5.25%, and see how the situation plays out. In my case, I think tomorrow's events and market's performance will decide on what I do. Appreciate you comments on this topic. Stock Bull