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Technology Stocks : Qualcomm Incorporated (QCOM) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: gdichaz who wrote (14295)	8/30/1998 10:40:00 AM
From: engineer	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 152472

Just some more reading on the markets.... ms.com

To: gdichaz who wrote (14295)	8/30/1998 11:48:00 AM
From: waverider	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 152472

One this thread, the following may cause me to have my head handed to me but: Chaz you wrote: >>As long as the specific stocks you hold (certainly not mutual funds where you are helpless to use your own judgement IMO) are chosen carefully, I for one have found that selling only when the fundamentals of the individual stock change or to buy a better opportunity is preferable to panic selling or wasted efforts at "timing".<< First of all, let's do away with the Catch-22 phrase, "are chosen carefully." Stocks that go up after you bought them were chosen carefully. Stocks that go down after you bought them were chosen poorly. Right? Now, about holding until fundamentals change. That is one of the biggest mistakes an investor can make. The market anticipates. It anticipates and prices in that anticipation LONG before you get the news. Let's take the drillers this past year. Their correction began in October '97 and has yet to stop. Many of the best drilling and oil service companies in the world are down 50-80% from their highs. Now here is the fun part...NOTHING, I repeat, NOTHING changed in the industry's fundamentals until April when a few companies started to "warn" investors about oil price concerns. And then it wasn't until May/June that we actually saw day rates on rigs fall. By that point, most of the stocks had lost 50% of their value. Some of the reasons to hold these stocks for the "long-term" were similar to Qualcomm. But specifically there was going to be a growing demand for oil because of population and economic growth. Oil is ALWAYS going to be used and there will eventually be a shortage. The oil industry cycle went in 10-12 year spans and we were only 2 years into the current one. There was a shortage of rigs and the lead time to make more was nearly 2 1/2 years. Most of these companies had weathered oil depressions before and now they were mean and lean and flush with cash. Blah, blah, blah. Now don't get into the fact that oil is a commodity and is cyclical and etc. Everyone knows that...but the trick was no one believed it anymore. Economic growth is cyclical too...but no one wanted to believe that until about 3 weeks ago. Chaz. Yeah, you bought Cisco. Good for you. But would you please share with me how many stocks have held up as well as Cisco until this last Thursday? Dell, GE, Intel, MSFT? Out of 8,000 + stocks, that isn't much. But you also bought Qualcomm. Hoping not to offend anyone here, QCOM has been one of the worst investments one could have made over the past 4 years (unless you traded it). From late 1995, the stock has gone NOWHERE! Why? It was overpriced in 1995 and is just now catching up with itself. How do I know? The market tells me so. And don't bother me with the perspective that the market is wrong. People make careers fighting the market and losing their shirts. Should you have continued to hold Cisco since you bought it? Now we say yes. How about in 1997 when it took it's plunge? Had I owned it, I would have sold the second it broke it's downtrend...and bought back the second it's uptrend continued. You say, that is market guess work and trickery? O.K. fine. All I can tell you is that I am here today investing with capital because I listened to what the market was telling me and I cut my losses based on what the market said. Had I held on to many of my older positions, I would have been broke. I know many others in the same boat. We have ALL been spoiled by a bull market in which tellers at Home Depot have become millionaires and it is hard to find a market commentator that doesn't say "buy the dip." The fundamentals of the world are CHANGING and the market is telling you something. This is NOT like all the other little corrections we've had. Ignore it at your own peril. Godspeed, <H>