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Technology Stocks : Wind River Systems - Technical Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Gerard who wrote (241)	8/31/1998 8:00:00 PM
From: Peter Church	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 431

Good questions. I am not sure how to value WIND with the prospect of continued bear markets and possible world wide depression over the next few years. I think the whole market will collapse, the good with the bad. But, the companies with continued earnings growth will appear as bargains. I know that I2O will kick in this year adding a couple of million dollars ( a guess) to the 1999 earnings. That should push the earnings growth towards 60% next quarters. However, if WIND's markets begin to falter, WIND's growth may slow too. Their broad diversification should shield them to a degree. But, the bottom line is a little less clear to me now. Maybe only time will tell how this little ship will weather the storm. In the meantime, I am buying puts as insurance (on WIND and also on AMZN and the DOW). It is a bad time to be invested in stocks, IMHO.

To: Gerard who wrote (241)	8/31/1998 11:28:00 PM
From: Mitchell Jones	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 431

Gerard, you are right in that WIND is part of a market that is cratering and will ,no doubt, remain under pressure as long as this condition lasts. The TA for WIND is stil relatively positive with support around $34 and resistance at about $42. It is hard to imagine how the fundamentals could be better. The small caps have been massacred, the mid-caps have been badly wounded, and today the large caps finally got mauled a bit. I cannot predict when the situation will improve. A rate cut is in order( I've never seen an inverted yield curve before) but the fed was still on a raise bias at last report, so I don't know if a cut is a reasonable hope at the moment. Even a rate cut might not stop the downtrend now because the market seems to have gone from a cup-half-full to a cup-half-empty psychology and the trend probably won't reverse until something changes that attitude. I would expect the momentum stocks to continue to tumble big time from here and the Dow stocks should play catch-up with the small and mid-caps if sentiment remains so bearish. Mitch