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To: Riskmgmt who wrote (19681)8/31/1998 12:44:00 PM
From: James Strauss  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 50167
 
Ray:

I agree... It's not the end of civilization... : > Just the end of the Bull market... As such, searching for a bottom can be treacherous, as there will be BEAR market rallies culminating in lower lows... The answer lies in market breadth... I'd look for:

**New Lows < 40 for 5 straight days...

**Advances > Declines for 5 straight days...

**Major indexes remaining above their 13 day MA for 5 straight days...

**Very negative sentiment that the market has turned up...

With the above, it might be safe to dip our toes on the long side...

Jim



To: Riskmgmt who wrote (19681)8/31/1998 12:53:00 PM
From: Lee  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 50167
 
Hi Ray,..Re: a bottom will be found and like the overdone on the upside you will get an overdoing on the downside.

It helps to view the market as just a big under-damped mass and any disturbance results in overshoot by a wide margin of the fundamental equilibrium vibration. So if forces have combined to cause a large overshoot to the negative this simply provides opportunity for selling options and buying bargains. If we remember that the performing companies are still growing their earnings and that the economy is still strong, then this is just a lucky buying opportunity. INTC looks like a buying opportunity and I'm buying, especially since they have provided guidance that they are looking at a good quarter coming up.

JMHO

Lee