Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : Stock Attack -- A Complete Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Judy who wrote (15227)	8/31/1998 3:28:00 PM
From: Robert Graham	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 42787

I agree that the market has changed and one's approach to trading the market needs to change along with it. IMO sentiment is quickly becoming the dominant force in the trading. Technicals still can provide reference marks that can be used to evaluate the progress of the sell off. Perhaps this market can be related to an anticipated change in fundamental picture. I will not venture into this topic right now other than saying that it was a change in this fundamental outlook as highlighted by the previous across-the-board downward revision of earnings estimates of the S&P 500, which companies exceeded only by a penny in many cases, that has facilitated this market top which IMO has turned into a bear market. A prospective economic slowdown had become very obvious by at least a couple quarters ago. Now we are seeing what happens when the market come to terms with this reality. Many thought they were on top of the world with a market that will continue up just to find themselves running naked in the streets. So the market is off by at least 2 or more quarters from a reality that had become obvious. The market in the past has anticipated economic slowdowns from 6 to 9 months in advance. So I expect 1999 to experience this type of much slower growth economy. Who knows? We may get another of those "soft landings"? But then perhaps not. IMO we also must remember that high growth economies do have their fast and slow phases that they alternate between. This is normal. It is just that the market became really used to the faced paced economy and emotions ran wild. As the bond salesman is fond of saying: "These people are now getting their face ripped off". I am sure it feels this way to those who are getting burned. Hopefully what we are seeing is a reluctant response to the "unexpected" that has been obvious and not a response to the market anticipating really bad economic news coming our way in 1999 that has not become obvious yet but will. Just some thoughts. By the way Judy, that call of the intermediate market top was impressive. Now you are getting more than you anticipated for with your prediction. ;) Bob Graham