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Strategies & Market Trends : Systems, Strategies and Resources for Trading Futures -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Tom Trader who wrote (2888)	9/1/1998 6:16:00 AM
From: Arik T.G.	Respond to of 44573

Tom, >>-my system is on a sell still and will not be able to generate a buy signal for a while -- after today's action. You have a very smart system... I was following the signals you posted for a while now, and looked at the charts to see the reasoning - confirming or contradicting my own judgements of the medium term trend. I've learned that there is a lot of agreement, and the differences (like the sell you got on Friday 8/21, which I believe was generated by market reaction to outside noise - a big drop in Europe) can be explained by the mechanical nature of the system vs. the frailty of human consistency. Notice your system did hint you ahead of time on the two biggest drops in recent market history. The persistent sell signals it generated before the '87 and '98 crashes were....well...remarkable. BTW, how many sells in a row did it generate prior to 10/22/97? Two? >>Congrats--on your great market projections--I hope that you made a lot of money Thanks, I did make out o.k., but not nearly as good should the timing of the crash had been one day later, on both accounts- 8/26 and yesterday. >>So now what do you do for an encore??:) You aint seen notin' yet. Here's the projection for the coming days, weeks, months and years, give or take a day or two ;-) scenario a - rebound and crash: Tuesday- up 3% to OEX 485 Wednesday- Up 1.5% in the morning, trying to battle the levels of Monday's failed attempt at a rally, but fails around OEX 490-496 and closes little changed up to 1% down. Thursday- Down hard, around 3% Friday - Down harder, maybe 5-6% Tuesday- Anything goes, from 4% decline to a meltdown of '87 proportion. Then four-five days of a strong 2 phases rally, Then three days of strong declines to check the bottom, maybe create new lows, and that will complete the first big leg down of the MC, on Sep 17-18th, just before expiration day. Then a big rally until mid November, and the second leg of the three legged bear will begin, lasting a year and a half (y2k and global depression), then a year or to of a rounded bottom, time to go treasure hunting in the wreckage. scenario b- failed rally today Wednesday down hard Thursday meltdown Friday BIG rally. Then very much like a scenario but quicker. the b scenario is very fuzzy. E waves look much better on the a scenario, and common sense also supports it. After all, we ARE grossly oversold. b scenario looks like a fast forward 1929 crash, but I believe that the '98 crash will be more in line with E count, as it was very closly meeting the E waves (in my eyes, see my previous E wave posts since 8/9 that predicted the duration and target of the upward correction to Aug 26th-off by two days and 3-5 OEX points). So I strongly support, and crossing my fingers for, the a scenario. >>Of course, you turned out to be right about not closing out my short futures trade at the usual target--lest we had a day like today. There are more days like that ahead, and a Big bear later on, that will increase the overall market volatility. I think there is still a lot to gain from extending the exit point. The extreme volatility is far from ending. >>I guess that I had the right idea about shorting the markets in a big way -- unfortunately I never got the rally that I wanted to be able to establish short positions. Everybody was looking to exit/short the market on this greatly anticipated rally, but someone had to buy :-( Now that fear entered the market (te sharp decline yesterday) buyers can be rewarded short term for their courage. >>Anyway, the markets are there tomorrow and there will be more opportunities. The words of a true trader. GLOBEX up 24.5 points to 978.5, hope it stays there. ATG