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Strategies & Market Trends : A.I.M Users Group Bulletin Board -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: JZGalt who wrote (5500)	9/1/1998 1:09:00 AM
From: Jack Jagernauth	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 18928

Dave, No one knows for sure how it will go from here, but I find it unreasonable to think that after 3 years, or so, of an unbelievable bull market, the decline will run for a few months and then we'll go back to continued 'exuberance'. My take on all of this is that there will be sucker rallies for sure, and the decline will continue. It looks to me like the trend has changed and bottom could be a long ways off; look at how many years it took Japan to reach somewhere close to bottom. Jack

To: JZGalt who wrote (5500)	9/1/1998 8:11:00 AM
From: OldAIMGuy	Respond to of 18928

Hi Dave, I'm digging into the cushions of the sofa and looking under the seats of the car for any remaining change. Other than my mutual funds, I'm just about tapped put. Yesterday wasn't my last Hurrah, but I'm nearly there. AIMers tend to cheer when the market is rising and also when it's falling. The only chance we get to catch the Buy/Hold investor is when the market retreats and we get back to 100% invested. Our individual stocks and mutual funds usually haven't given us the rough beating that we've been getting recently - NASDAQ now down 25% from its previous high - and as immune as we like to think of ourselves as being, the pervasive market psychology is tough to ignore. I know that I own lots of good quality stocks at great average prices. I don't need to sell any to live, so I can wait out the storm. It's the unforeseen events that always haunt me. An energy crisis, political chaos, Whitehouse AIDS epidemic, those are the things that rock the market that we can't prejudge and certainly my Idiot Wave doesn't measure. Most of the time in the past, the big names have lead the market higher from a trough. Most likely it will this time, also. In 1987 I used the last of my cash reserve to buy large cap names that I'd watched for years that had always been over-priced by my terms. They had been knocked down along with everything else by December. Those stocks lead the way for me in 1988 and were the first ones that I started selling as AIM asked for cash. I'm not anxiously awaiting a long bear market either! A good stiff correction to weed out the weak hands will actually help the basic strength of the market in the next recovery. If the market drop is followed on by a recession, then we have our work cut out for us. I'll have to take a serious look at my positions. It may require a look at reallocation to where I feel the recession will recover first. Yes, I agree, mr. clinton directly undermined the general market confidence and made this a much worse experience than it needed to be. It's like the joke about Pierre the Fighter Pilot, clinton says "If I go down, I go down in Flames!" I don't think he gives a rats butt if he takes the stock market with him. Best regards, Tom