Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Technology Stocks : MEMC INT'L. (WFR -NYSE) The Sleeping Giant? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Carl R. who wrote (3756)	8/31/1998 8:34:00 PM
From: Wildstar	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 4697

Thus for AMAT to bottom in July 1996 rather than now would be inconsistent with past dips, which is always possible, of course. AMAT hit about 24 in 1986,or 12 pre-split. You mean 1996? I agree about AMAT's share price. I won't be buying unless it drops less than 15. (I would love to get in below 10 but that's wishful thinking-g-) If it doesn't, and a turnaround in the industry is in sight, I will buy the more reasonably priced smaller semi-equips.

To: Carl R. who wrote (3756)	9/1/1998 1:47:00 AM
From: Mark Adams	Respond to of 4697

Carl - Thanks for your post. AMAT has consistently bottomed at the end of the dip, not at the beginning. This makes sense. The market cap of AMAT provides the liquiity that institutions desire. So if the big_guys decide to scale back, they probably will do so in lesser issues first. Note that some issues, such as FSII haven't dropped much the past few days. (Not that FSII survival is gauranteed) The semi industry is hurting already, and the world's economy is healthy The semi equip guys were hurting July of 96. I was surprised by the quick rebound and let some calls I sold take my equipment stocks out from under me. Now I can buy those same stocks for 1/2 the cost basis I held then. The semi mfgs were in pretty good shape then, which based on share price does not appear to be the case now. I hear peeps now and then about an upsurge in chip order/shipments, but nothing in the headlines. In general my feeling is that cash is king right now. No argument there- though I've maintained a steady 25% allocation to stocks the past 2 years, with ever increasing diversification. Of course, I'm down some dollars too. I buy puts from time to time, but have a hard time holding them for more than a week or two. I think the Fed will intervene with an interest rate drop or by flooding the market with liquidity when the Dow falls to the 6600 to 7000 range, and that will ignite a rally. The drop in the DOW may be an excuse for a rate drop, but I don't a rate drop think it will directly cause a rally. A rally will occur, but I don't believe we will see the entire market participate, nor many stocks breach their 52 week highs. In a word, a _sucker_ rally. Of course, for anyone long a few shares, selling into that rally may provide some gains. And as for whether we can now avoid a recession, contemplate how much money has vanished from the face of the earth in the last week. What will that do for world-wide spending? If you consider that most of the paper loss occurred in mutual funds, 401k etc, then many may not be aware of the extent of the damage until end of september, mid october, when they get their quaterly report. By then, we may be in the midst of a mini rally, where it won't look so bad. But the damage occurring in Russia and Asia will impact long term GDP growth and spending. Good points, you make. Thanks for sharing your thoughts. Shows you that you can't pick a fixed target, but must reevaluate as the situation evolves. Once my check, which is 'in the mail', arrives at my broker, I'm buying more stocks. <g>

To: Carl R. who wrote (3756)	9/1/1998 5:16:00 PM
From: eabDad	Respond to of 4697

Carl: Actually I have done the analysis on the past two down cycles, 1985-87 and 1990-92 and found the following conclusions: - Within 18 months of the ultimate peak, the ultimate low was reached in 2/3 of the stocks. - For the other 1/3, new lows were reached later in the multi-year cycle. - In the first group, companies which gained share during the slow period or grew product lines never saw the original low (the "blue chip rising stars"), this amounted to almost 1/3 of the total group - The other half of the first group (or the other 1/3) were the blue chip style companies which had steady share. These companies typically retested the original low later in the cycle without breaking it. - The group that hit new lows are the dogs, or the companies losing share. I would place AMAT in the rising stars, KLAC in the solid group which retest successfully, and LRCX in the lackluster group. Most of the companies in the lackluster group have already broken the 1996 lows, but I do not expect AMAT to come close. But my target range for AMAT is 17-19. Z