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Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: William H Huebl who wrote (25911)	8/31/1998 9:17:00 PM
From: Philipp	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 94695

Hi Bill: I took a graph paper and plotted the descent of the DOW minute by minute and then when the trend broke, I sold my puts immediately. Now with the advent of computers, you should be able to just watch the minute charts and pull the plug when the trend changes toward up. Yes, that sounds very reasonable. But I have been watching the indices very carefully for the last few weeks. There were just too many false trend reversals. We even had a couple of failed rallies today, and the early-afternoon one almost looked convincing (under normal circumstances I even might have gone long on it). I guess one should look at the selling momentum. When it starts to decline the sell-off should be in its last phase. I don't think that Vix will be useful. In 87 it approached 150, but there is no magic number. Well, it should be an experience in any case. Regards, Phil

To: William H Huebl who wrote (25911)	8/31/1998 9:27:00 PM
From: Richard J. Byrd	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 94695

Bill: < I took a graph paper and plotted the descent of the DOW minute by minute and then when the trend broke, I sold my puts immediately. > That would be nice if the "trend line" acted that quickly, but you know it doesn't. No market goes straight down or straight up; there are little reversals all the time. How, when you are looking minute-by-minute, do you tell a trend change from a short rally only to be followed by another wave of selling? Figure that out and you'll be richer than Bill Gates. Dick